The No. 5 seeded San Diego State Aztecs, last year’s national runner-up, opens its 2024 tournament against the East Region’s No. 12 seed, the UAB Blazers. The Aztecs are favored by several points.
San Diego State Aztecs (24-10, 11-7 MWC)
The defense is completely different than it was a year ago en route to the Final Four run, since there’s no rim protector this season. But the Aztecs are still one of the top defensive teams in the nation (No. 8 on KenPom). Jaedon LeDee averaged 7.9 points on last year’s team, but has developed into one of the nation’s top players, and he’s a big, strong forward who can win matchups with opposing big men.
The Aztecs struggle to shoot the ball from deep. Of the four players who have attempted more than 100 3-pointers this season, only Reese Waters (36.9 percent) is hitting more than a third of them. There’s also no true point guard on the team, and besides LeDee, no one averages more than 10.2 points per contest. San Diego State has a bunch of solid guards, but this team is largely reliant on LeDee to put up points.
It’s hard to count out the Aztecs after last year’s surprising run to the national title game, but this team just doesn’t appear as capable without a rim protector in the paint and also without a sidekick to LeDee on the offensive end. Coach Brian Dutcher will need last year’s hero, Lamont Butler, to step it up offensively along with Micah Parrish and Darrion Trammell. —Jeff Goodman, The Field of 68
UAB Blazers (23-11, 12-6 AAC)
The Blazers scored more than 85 points seven times this season and even hit 100 once. It was that 100-point game that was the impetus for the Temple betting scandal from a couple of weeks ago. Bart Torvik has the Blazers as 62nd in the nation in adjusted efficiencies and 20th in offensive rebounding percentage. Junior Yaxel Lendeborg earned first-team All-American Athletic Conference honors for a reason and he’s one of the best defensive rebounders in the country, according to KenPom.
Still, this is a team that experienced a three-game mid-season losing streak to McNeese, Southern Miss and Arkansas State. Plus late-season back-to-back losses to Wichita State and Memphis.
The Blazers won all three games in the AAC Tournament by double digits. They’re 7 1/2 point underdogs to SDSU and a little over 2-to-1 to pull an upset, according to the odds. The Bracket Breakers have this game as the seventh-most likely to be an upset, according to their model (which only takes into account games with a 5-or-more seed difference).
What: East Region, First Round
Tipoff time: 1:45 p.m. ET Friday
TV: TNT
Location: Spokane, Wash.
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 UAB odds
Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.
Expert picks
Model projection: San Diego State by 5, total 140
See Austin Mock’s best futures bets
Players to watch
San Diego State
- Jaedon LeDee, senior forward, first-team All-MWC
- Lamont Butler, senior guard, MWC Defensive Player of the Year
UAB
- Yaxel Lendeborg, junior forward, Defensive Player of the Year, first-team All-AAC
Library of Madness
(Photo credit: Aric Becker / ISI Photos/Getty Images, Getty Images North America)
