The stars shine brightest in March, and both Marquette and Colorado got stellar performances from their All-Conference guards in Round 1 wins. Marquette’s Tyler Kolek returned from a six-game absence to tally 18 points, six rebounds and 11 assists in a comeback win over 15th-seeded Western Kentucky, while the Buffaloes’ K.J. Simpson scored 23, including a go-ahead jumper with 1.7 seconds left to beat Florida.
That sets the stage for a clash between two of the country’s most efficient offenses with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line. No. 2-seed Marquette is favored by a few points.
The Buffs assisted on 27 of 34 made baskets in their win over the Gators, shooting 63 percent from the field and scoring 102 points, the second most of any team in Round 1. Marquette struggled in the first half against the Hilltoppers, but rebounded in the second half, scoring 51 points on 56 percent shooting while getting 10 assists from Kolek after the break. Paint points will be plentiful, with Marquette ranking 15th in the country in 2-point field goal percentage behind the prowess of Oso Ighodaro, Kam Jones, and Kolek, while Colorado ranks 45th in the country from inside the arc behind Eddie Lampkin, Tristan da Silva, and Simpson. Neither offense plays all that fast, but both take care of the rock and take high-percentage shots.
Where the two teams differ, and where Marquette finds a slight advantage, is in the turnover department. Colorado’s offense is efficient when it gets a shot off, but they rank 253rd in turnover percentage, turning it over on 18.3 percent of possessions. That was seventh-worst among tournament teams, and the other six lost in the opening round. Marquette’s defense struggles on the glass, but makes up for it in turning teams over. Keep an eye on Stevie Mitchell, who had three steals in Round 1 and ranks fourth in the country among players left in the tournament in steal percentage (4.1 percent).
On the other end, the Golden Eagles take great care of the ball (especially now that Kolek is back and healthy) while Colorado struggles turning teams over, ranking 300th in opponent turnover percentage. Case in point: In Colorado’s Pac-12 tournament loss to Oregon, the Ducks had just three turnovers.
Still, this isn’t your typical 2-10 matchup. The Buffs are 21st overall in KenPom, ahead of the likes of Kansas, Kentucky and Texas. Their well-balanced attack and star power gives them a chance here, with Marquette only a slight favorite despite the gap in seeding. The Golden Eagles will counter with their own talented trio, and the team that takes care of the ball best should advance to the second weekend.
What: South Region, Second Round
Tipoff time: 12:10 p.m. ET Sunday
TV: CBS
Location: Indianapolis
Marquette vs. Colorado odds
Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.
Expert picks
Model projection: Marquette by 1.5, total 149.5
Players to watch
Marquette
- Tyler Kolek, senior guard, first-team All-Big East
- Oso Ighodaro, senior forward, second-team All-Big East
Colorado
- K.J. Simpson, junior guard, first-team All-Pac 12
- Tristan da Silva, senior forward, second-team All-Pac 12
More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage
(Photo of Tyler Kolek: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
