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Rays Madness: Using simulators to find the best team in franchise history

Rays Madness: Using simulators to find the best team in franchise history


In the spirit of march madness, a 16 team bracket has been created with different Rays teams of the past, with a baseball simulator being used to create a single elimination game deciding the winner of each matchup.

The seeding was decided on a ranking of each previous Rays teams winning percentage, with the 2020 Rays earning the no. 1 seed with a .667 winning percentage. Each game is simulated just one time (higher seeded team bats second), and the results are final.

This seeding produced the following matchups:

1 – 2020 Rays
16 – 2004 Devil Rays

8 – 2011 Rays
9 – 2018 Rays

5 – 2019 Rays
12 – 2009 Rays

4 – 2008 Rays
13 – 2017 Rays

3 – 2023 Rays
14 – 2015 Rays

6 – 2010 Rays
11 – 2022 Rays

7 – 2013 Rays
10 – 2012 Rays

2 – 2021 Rays
15 – 2014 Rays

Each simulation comes with stats and play-by-play, allowing for some thrilling moments, and wild upsets.

No. 1 2020 Rays vs. No. 16 2004 Devil Rays

Our first matchup saw the AL pennant winning 2020 Rays matchup against the 2004 Devil Rays, with 2004 putting Mark Hendrickson on the mound to start the game while 2020 puts up Cy Young winner Blake Snell.

This game starts the tournament on an uninteresting note, with the 2020 Rays making an example of the 2004 squad.

The explosive 2020 offense got started early with an explosive third inning that saw RBI singles from Joey Wendle and Yoshi Tsutsugo, followed by a three-run home run from Hunter Renfroe. The 2020 squad entered the fourth inning with an 8-0 lead.

They would only expand on this lead, allowing just one run in the entire ballgame and walking away with a 16-1 victory.

No. 8 2011 Rays vs. No. 9 2018 Rays

Our next matchup sees the 2011 wild-card-clinching Rays taking on the 2018 squad. 2018 puts up 1.89 ERA Blake Snell for his second start for a team in this tournament, while the 2011 squad puts David Price on the mound.

The game starts with fireworks early, as Daniel Robertson hits a solo home run in the top of the first to give the 2018 Rays a 1-0 lead. They would expand this lead to 3-0 entering the fifth inning.

The 2011 squad would start to launch a comeback in the fifth inning however, with Johnny Damon scoring on a wild pitch from Snell. A Casey Kotchman single would bring in John Jaso in the same inning to make it 3-2.

However, the depth of the 2018 Rays bullpen would be too much to handle, finishing the last three innings with just five hits allowed and no earned runs between Ryan Stanek (1.0 IP), Chaz Roe (1.0 IP), and Sergio Romo (1.0 IP).

An insurance run in the top of the seventh would seal a 4-2 final, and a victory for the 2018 Rays.

No. 5 2019 Rays vs. No. 12 2009 Rays

Our 5-12 matchup sees a 2019 squad that finished second in the AL East take on the 2009 team that won just 84 games. James Shields took the mound for the 2009 Rays while 2019 put Charlie Morton as their starter for the day.

This game saw the 2019 team put on an offensive display, taking control of the game from the jump and never letting it go. Austin Meadows went 3-4 with 3 RBIs, and Avisail Garcia went 2-4 with 2 RBIs of his own as the 2019 group thrashed the 2009 group 8-3.

Morton put on a display on the mound as well, allowing just two earned runs in seven innings, and sending the 2009 Rays packing.

No. 4 2008 Rays vs. No. 13 2017 Rays

This matchup sees the AL-pennant-winning 2008 Rays take on the 80-82 2017 Rays. 2017 is putting young stud Chris Archer as their starter, while 2008 is starting the game with James Shields.

Starting pitcher James Shields #33 of of the Tampa Bay Rays throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies during game two of the 2008 MLB World Series on October 23, 2008 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Despite being the big underdogs, a Corey Dickerson two-run homerun in the top of the first would energize the 2017 squad and send a message that this game would be competitive, even though the next 3.5 innings would be a pitching duel, with neither team getting into scoring position.

Finally the scoring would continue in the top of the fifth inning, with Wilson Ramos hitting a two-run home run to extend the lead to 4-0 for the 2017 team.

The 2008 team would start to get their bats going in the bottom of the sixth though, finding themselves with the bases loaded with two outs and Carlos Pena, the tying run, up to the plate. Shields would get out of this jam however, with Pena grounding out to third and keeping the score at 4-0.

The 2008 group would be able to make one final push in the bottom of the ninth, with runners on the corners and just one out. Closer Alex Colome would then strike out Carl Crawford, leaving them to their final out. A Jason Bartlett ground out would seal the game with a 4-1 final, and our biggest upset of the tournament so far, with the 2017 Rays pulling away with the win.

No. 3 2023 Rays vs. No. 14 2015 Rays

Our next matchup sees the most recent Rays roster facing off against a 2015 squad that finished fourth in the AL East.

The 2023 team would take Zach Eflin to the mound for the day, while the 2015 squad puts Chris Archer up for the start. This game would be a battle through the first five innings, as we enter the sixth inning in a 2-2 tie.

Back-to-back home runs from Evan Longoria and Asdrubal Cabrera would give the 2015 Rays a commanding 4-2 lead in the top of the sixth inning. They would hold onto this lead entering the ninth despite some fight from the 2023 squad, as we headed to the bottom of the ninth with the 2015 team up 5-3.

Yandy Diaz would reach first on a walk, but would be picked off the next at bat, a crushing blow to the potential comeback. Josh Lowe would take ball four to put the tying run back to the plate with their tournament life on the line.

With Jose Siri at the plate with a runner on and one out, we saw our first “march madness” moment, as Siri smashed a game-tying home run over the right field wall to send us to extra innings.

In the bottom of the tenth it would be Josh Lowe who walks it off for the 2023 squad, bringing in Randy Arozarena on a walk-off single, winning the game 6-5, in a thrilling game.

No. 6 2010 Rays vs. No. 11 2022 Rays

Our 6-10 matchup would see another start for James Shields, as he’d be facing off against Corey Kluber and the 2022 Rays squad. This game looked to be another uninteresting blowout, with the 2022 Rays holding a 6-2 lead through the first five innings and looking to run away with the game.

However, the 2010 group would make things interesting in the bottom of the sixth.

Pittsburgh Pirates v Tampa Bay Rays

Evan Longoria #3 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates in the dugout with teammates including Desmond Jennings #8 of the Tampa Bay Rays and Sean Rodriguez #1 of the Tampa Bay Rays after hitting a two-run home run during the eighth inning of a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 24, 2014 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images

A three-run home run from Sean Rodriguez gave the team life, making it 6-5 entering the seventh inning. Then an RBI double from Evan Longoria scoring John Jaso would tie the game just like that in the bottom of the seventh. And after two quiet innings, we were going to extras for the second game in a row.

Extra innings would once again not last long, though, as Carlos Pena would hit a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the tenth to score Carl Crawford to win the game 7-6 for the 2010 Rays.

No. 7 2013 Rays vs. No. 10 2012 Rays

Our next matchup would see the closest game in terms of rosters, with these teams being immediately following each other. 2013 would put Jeremy Hellickson to the mound, while 2012 would start ole’ reliable James Shields.

Despite being the statistically worse pitcher, it would be Hellickson who put up an impressive performance for the day, allowing just two runs in six innings and putting his group in a good position entering the final three innings.

Luke Scott would back this good pitching performance up with a four-RBI day, batting two for four with a home run. Closer Fernando Rodney would earn the save for the 2013 team in the top of the ninth, ending a relatively uneventful game 5-3.

No. 2 2021 Rays vs. No. 15 2014 Rays

Our final matchup of the day would see two elite pitchers facing off, with 2021’s Shane McClanahan going up against 2014’s Chris Archer for a spot in the ‘Elite eight’.

Despite these two great pitchers on the mound, the 2021 group would finish the second inning with a 5-1 lead after two big innings.

The 2014 team wasn’t going anywhere though, with home runs from Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist tying the game 5-5 in the bottom of the fourth. And just like that, we had a game on our hands.

Ben Zobrist would come up huge again in the top of the sixth. His second home run of the day, a three run blast to right center, would put the 2014 Rays up 8-5.

This high-scoring duel would continue in the bottom of the sixth, with the 2021 Rays small-balling their way to a four-run inning, taking the lead 9-8.

The 2014 Rays, would respond right back in the top of the seventh with a four-run inning of their own to make it 12-9, and strong pitching performances from Joel Peralta and Jake McGee would seal the game for the 2014 squad, our second huge upset of the tournament.

First Round Conclusion

In just the first round of our Rays Madness tournament, we’ve seen massive upsets, thrilling finishes, and incredible performance by Rays legends.

Here are the upcoming second round matchups:

1 – 2020 Rays
9 – 2018 Rays

5 – 2019 Rays
13 – 2017 Rays

3 – 2023 Rays
6 – 2010 Rays

7 – 2013 Rays
15 – 2014 Rays

We’re set for some more entertaining matchups in the second round, so stay tuned for more.



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