The Big 12 is the best projected league again by Ken Pomeroy this season, and it’s not close. The league has earned the hype. It boasts the last two national champs, and Pomeroy’s metrics has tabbed the Big 12 as the best league in seven of the last nine seasons.
A round-robin schedule, no-middle defenses and no-easy buckets. Welcome back to another year in what’s become the ultimate gauntlet in college hoops.
Two dominant storylines
Can Kansas repeat?
Since Florida repeated in 2007, no national champ has made it past the Sweet 16 the following season. The Jayhawks are replacing NBA wings Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun along with title game hero David McCormack, but no coach wins as consistently in the sport as Bill Self.
Self reloaded on the wing with the addition of Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar and freshmen Gradey Dick and M.J. Rice. KU has some question marks at center — mainly, who is going to man that spot — but the defense should be good with mini menace Dajuan Harris out front, and you just never count out Self.
Is Texas or TCU a contender to actually win the league?
One thing Kansas proved on its title run was that roster continuity matters. TCU returns all five starters and only lost one rotation piece from a team that was one bad call away from knocking off No. 1 seed Arizona in the round of 32. Word has also spread in coaching circles that TCU had one of the most impressive preseason secret scrimmage performances, smoking Alabama by a wide margin.
Texas is preseason No. 1 in Pomeroy’s Big 12 projections, has one of the top incoming freshman classes in college hoops and landed arguably the top transfer available in former Iowa State point guard Tyrese Hunter. Baylor and KU were picked 1-2 by both the coaches and media poll (conducted by The Athletic), but the Texas and TCU rosters boast enough talent and experience to make it a four-way race. Texas Tech, with another strong transfer class, could also be a threat.
Three players to watch
1. Adam Flagler, Baylor: Flagler battled knee issues throughout his junior season, but he was still Baylor’s best player and had a terrific finish, scoring 27 points in an overtime loss to eventual national runner-up North Carolina. He is one of the best shooters in the conference. One of the keys to Baylor’s season is how he handles playing primarily point guard for the first time after playing off the ball his first two seasons in Waco.
2. Tyrese Hunter, Texas: Hunter was the best freshman in the league last year. His strong suits were his defense and passing. Texas needs shooting, and Hunter says he’s drastically improved in that area — he shot 27.4 percent from 3 last season. Hunter reports he made 7 of 8 in a scrimmage two weeks ago. “Flame thrower,” teammate Brock Cunningham says.
3. Daniel Batcho, Texas Tech: Texas Tech landed one of the top bigs in the portal in Fardaws Aimaq, but he injured his foot in the preseason and is not returning anytime soon. That might not be as big a deal as first expected. Word out of Lubbock is Batcho, a 6-11 sophomore center, has been terrific this preseason. “Running the floor, blocking shots, catching lobs, finishing around the rim. He’s putting it on floor,” teammate De’Vion Harmon told The Athletic. “He’s looking great. I’m not lying, he’s looking like a draft pick.”
George is arguably the best scorer in the freshman class nationally and showed off the goods this summer at the Globl Jam in Canada, leading the Bears in scoring at 22.8 points per game. He can score from all three levels and fits well in a role similar to how Scott Drew used Jared Butler. Don’t be surprised if he leads the conference in scoring.
Coach who needs to win: Bob Huggins, West Virginia
Not sure any coach in the league is on the hot seat, but West Virginia is trending in the wrong direction. The Mountaineers finished last in 2022, and Huggins rebooted with a bunch of well-traveled transfers. Sometimes that works (see Iowa State last year), but even with the transfers, the Mountaineers look like one of the worst teams on paper in the league. If they miss the NCAA Tournament, it’ll be the first time they’ve missed consecutive NCAAs since 2014.
Predicted league finish
1. Baylor
Baylor’s defense has been a major story the last three seasons, but did you know Scott Drew’s offense has ranked top 20 in adjusted efficiency in 12 of the last 15 seasons? Drew could end up with one of the nation’s best offenses this year. He has the most talented guard quartet in the country, and West Virginia transfer Jalen Bridges, a small-ball four who shot 48.9 percent from 3 two years ago as a freshman in Big 12 play, is the perfect complement to that group.
2. Kansas
Self says McCullar has been better than expected on the offensive end, and he and Jalen Wilson form one of the best wing duos in the sport. The offense will rely heavily on those wings and its perimeter play. We’ll see fewer post entries than a typical Self-coached team. The key will be how well KU shoots the ball. The hope is Wilson and McCullar are better there, and Dick can be a sniper right away.
3. TCU
The Horned Frogs were one of the most athletic teams in the conference last year and the best rebounding team. They just need to make shots. They shot 30.2 percent from 3 last season. Leading scorer Mike Miles needs to shoot it more like his freshman year than sophomore season, as he saw his 3-point percentage dip from 36 percent to 29.5.
Timmy Allen averaged 12.1 points and 6.4 rebounds for Texas last season en route to All-Big 12 second team honors. (Benny Sieu / USA Today)
4. Texas
Texas underachieved based on expectations last year, and one issue seemed to be that Marcus Carr, Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey didn’t really mesh on the perimeter. Carr is the only one who remains, and Chris Beard restocked his backcourt by adding Hunter, New Mexico State transfer Sir’Jabari Rice and freshman Arterio Morris. There’s plenty of weapons on the perimeter, and Timmy Allen is a mid-range killer, but the Longhorns are small (but athletic) up front. Can small-ball win in the Big 12?
5. Texas Tech
Mark Adams killed it in his first year as head coach. Texas Tech had the best defense in college hoops for the second time in the last four seasons. Up transfers don’t hit a very high rate, but they did for Texas Tech. Adams replaces four starters, but he’s shown his skeptics he can recruit, restocking through the portal and landing a recruiting class that ranked third-best in the league.
6. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys had the fourth-best defense in college hoops last season and had a strong finish to the regular season, which was the end of the year because of a postseason ban. Props to Mike Boynton for keeping his guys engaged. His next challenge is to figure out a way to fix an offense that was the worst in the Big 12. Boynton needs former Kansas guard Bryce Thompson to make the leap, becoming a more efficient scorer.
7. Iowa State
T.J. Otzelberger hit the transfer portal hard again, bringing in five transfers to go along with three freshmen. The Cyclones also will rely on forward Tre King, who sat out last season after transferring from Georgetown and Eastern Kentucky before that. The top additions were former St. Bonaventure teammates Osun Osunniyi and Jaren Holmes. The Cyclones are old everywhere but point guard, where they might have to rely on two freshmen. That’s scary in this league.
8. Oklahoma
The Sooners just barely missed making the tournament in Porter Moser’s first year. Moser needed more shot creators, and he also hit the portal to find them, landing two guys who put up big numbers on mediocre teams: former Nevada leading scorer Grant Sherfield and former George Washington/Virginia Tech guard Joseph Bamisile. Those two, with the Groves brothers and Jalen Hill, could make for a nice core if they hit.
9. Kansas State
Kansas State has potentially one of the best wings in college basketball in Keyontae Johnson, the former Florida player who sat out nearly two years because of a heart condition. Johnson isn’t getting talked about much nationally, but he has the potential to help Jerome Tang flip K-State into a winner quickly. Also learn the name Nae’Qwan Tomlin. He never played organized basketball before college, but K-State coaches believe his ceiling is high.
10. West Virginia
The craziest plot twist from this wild portal world we live in: When one player transfers from his school and then a year later transfers back! Emmitt Matthews Jr. is the latest to make the boomerang move. Not sure the Mountaineers have enough scoring, but last year’s team wasn’t as big and athletic as we’re used to seeing in Morgantown, and Matthews’ return and the addition of former Saint Louis big man Jimmy Bell Jr. help address that deficiency.
(Top photo of Baylor’s Adam Flagler and Oklahoma State’s Avery Anderson III: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)
