Over the past couple of weeks, our 17-member college basketball expert panel has offered their predictions on all sorts of topics for the 2022-23 season. But as tip-off finally arrives Monday night, we know what’s really on your mind:
Who’s going to win the whole thing?
Last year, two voters successfully singled out Kansas as the eventual 2022 national champs, while two other voters at least nailed Final Four squads (Duke and Villanova). This time around, nine different teams gained at least one nod as the squad that will cut down the nets in Houston’s NRG Stadium on April 3. And if our leading vote-getter is the right pick, then that will be quite a scene for some hometown heroes.
2023 NCAA Tournament champion
And now let’s get some of our experts on the record with their national title picks:
Houston
The Cougars won 32 games last year. They made it to the Elite Eight, pushing Villanova to the brink. And they did that with Marcus Sasser playing all of 12 games. Now imagine what Houston can do with Sasser back, plus Jamal Shead, Tramon Marks, Reggie Chaney, plus two stud freshmen in Jarace Walker and Terrance Arceneaux? Oh, and Kelvin Sampson is still the coach. Gonzaga and Houston are the only two teams to rank in Ken Pomeroy’s top 10 in offense in defense the last two years. Don’t be surprised to see that matchup in the final this year. — Dana O’Neil
With a roster roiled by injuries to massively important players, all Houston did last year was finish in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while winning 32 games and reaching the Elite Eight. What happens when Sampson works with a full cupboard? Because Sasser and Mark are back, joined by five-star freshman Walker. I’m taking a risk that the injury issues won’t reoccur … but what fun is making a safe pick anyway? — Brian Hamilton
This will be the toughest team in the country to play against. They’re physical at the point of attack and all of their guys play with an exceptional motor. On top of that, they have the high-upside talent now with potential first-round picks in Sasser, Walker and Arceneaux. — Sam Vecenie
The Cougars are loaded; they have everything you need to win a national championship. They have big-game experience, with three star guards, a future potential lottery pick in Walker and are hard to prepare for in the way they defend/rebound. Bringing back Sasser, Mark, and Shead is huge, as they are arguably the best backcourt in the country. Lastly, they have an advantage that many haven’t considered. They battled a ton of injuries a year ago and bring back the majority of their roster, meaning their reserves have big game experience along with depth. — Tobias Bass
Sampson’s team is tough as nails and has arguably the best guard in the country coming back in Sasser. — Austin Meek
Gonzaga
I made North Carolina my preseason No. 1, but it’s only a matter of time before the Zags check the sole remaining box on their resume. Their strong schedule and routine domination of the West Coast Conference virtually guarantees a top two seed every year, and Mark Few once again has as good a combination of talent and experience as you’ll find. — Seth Davis
Have said it before and will say it again — the Zags will do it eventually, so I’m picking them until they do. It’s not as if it’s a stretch to do so. Gonzaga has talent and experience. Drew Timme is back, Julian Strawther is a star in the making and Malachi Smith could be one of the most impactful transfers in the country. — Brendan Quinn
This program keeps knocking and knocking and knocking — and at some point, the door’s got to open, right? — Nicole Auerbach
This is the year Gonzaga finally does it, when expectations have cooled off a bit — you know, ranking a mere No. 2 in the preseason — and with a guy in Malachi Smith who will be familiar to a much larger group of college basketball fans in short order. Efton Reid is another talented transfer of note, and Timme remains quite good. — Joe Rexrode
Baylor
Scott Drew has the best perimeter trio in the sport, and his defense has been elite since adopting the no-middle scheme several years ago. Drew gets his second title, and the Big 12 wins its third straight. — CJ Moore
Lots of people are pointing to what Houston did despite injuries last season. Well, what about Baylor? The Bears dealt with all kinds of injury problems last year but still won a share of the regular-season title in the best league in the country and earned a No. 1 seed. Now they have seasoned veterans to surround an elite freshman scorer (Keyonte George). The Bears would have been a strong contender in the 2020 tournament, won it in 2021 and took a scorching hot UNC team to overtime despite a decimated roster last March. Drew has got this thing figured out. — Brian Bennett
North Carolina
Redemption 2.0? That’s what the Tar Heels are gunning for, six years after their 2017 squad avenged an excruciating national championship loss. Pete Nance isn’t the 3-point marksman Brady Manek was, but he’s probably a better all-around player — and, importantly, he understands his role behind Armando Bacot, Caleb Love and R.J. Davis. — Brendan Marks
Arkansas
Taking a flier here. I think Kentucky will win the SEC, so why a conference rival to win it all? Because the tournament is weird, and Eric Musselman has navigated consecutive runs to the Elite Eight with less talent than he has now. Per usual, he crushed the transfer portal, including potential breakout star Trevon Brazile. But he also signed a monster recruiting class: four top-100 players and three McDonald’s All-Americans, including arguably the best high school prospect in the country, Nick Smith. The Hogs could be partying like it’s 1994. — Kyle Tucker
Duke
Duke has a ton of questions, starting with replacing The Legend and four starters, but Jon Scheyer brought in a great class. It may take time, and Duke might not win the ACC, but there’s a good shot the Blue Devils are on the court for “One Shining Moment.” — Scott Dochterman
Kentucky
Many Kentucky fans are starting to get a little concerned about the Wildcats’ style of play on the offensive end; it is long past time for a bit of modern spacing to come into John Calipari’s tactical thinking. Maybe having a possible 50-percent 3-point shooter like CJ Fredrick with be the catalyst. Or maybe UK will just throw it up on the rim and let Big Oscar go get it. That could work too! The point is that this group is so talented it can play a 2010-era offense and still be the best team in the country. — Eamonn Brennan
Texas
The Longhorns are back, but not in football. I’m banking that the continued proliferation of the transfer portal will make for a lot of disjointed, haphazard play on the offense, and that good defensive teams can capitalize. Texas and Chris Beard can be that team this season. — Justin Williams
(Our complete panel of experts: Nicole Auerbach, Tobias Bass, Brian Bennett, Eamonn Brennan, Seth Davis, Scott Dochterman, Brian Hamilton, Hugh Kellenberger, Brendan Marks, Austin Meek, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Brendan Quinn, Joe Rexrode, Kyle Tucker, Sam Vecenie and Justin Williams.)
Previous predictions:
Mid-major that can make a March run
Most entertaining player in the country
Most compelling game of 2022-23
First coaching change
Surprise team
Disappointing team
Coach of the year
Freshman of the year
Player of the year
(Photo of Marcus Sasser: Troy Taormina / USA Today)
