There is typically more than meets the eye with pitching stats. Whether that be home run luck, defense, park factor, pitch mix, pitch tunnelling, etc., there is a lot that can alter a pitcher’s season year-over-year. Of course, for a pitcher to sustain consistent success, they have to be at a certain baseline of *good*, and for the best of the best, outside factors matter little. Regardless, for the majority of pitchers who fall into a wide bucket of talented, but not elite, they are subject to factors outside of their control, or requiring offseason adjustments.
After covering the hitters due for negative regression and hitters due for positive regression, we will move on to the pitchers. This post is similar to my past piece about not buying into 2025 ERA, but with a different set of pitchers!
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SP Freddy Peralta NYM
2025 season stats
ERA: 2.70
xERA: 3.42
xFIP: 3.85
SIERA: 3.68
The Mets’ newest Opening Day starter was pretty lucky in 2025. From 2022 through 2024, Peralta’s ERAs were steady. He posted a 3.58 in 2022, 3.86 in 2023, and 3.68 in 2024. What changed in 2025 was his left-on-base rate. This jumped to 85.5%, well above his career 75.8% rate, which is around league average. He also experienced BABIP luck simultaneously, with a .243 that is lower than his career .265. Some pitchers can regularly carry rates like this better than league average, but Peralta’s 2025 was well beyond.
Peralta is also going from one of the league’s best defensive teams to one of the league’s more mediocre (which could be even worse if Bo Bichette struggles at third base). Also, he is moving from a division with the Reds, Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates to a division with the Braves, Phillies, Marlins, and Nationals. The Braves and Phillies would be the toughest offense in the NL Central if either were there.
Had there been any jump in K-BB or groundball rate, maybe that could have soothed the regression. Unfortunately, Peralta’s 2025 K-BB and GB% were in line with recent seasons. With no boost in home park factor between Citi Field and American Family Field (still Miller Park to me), expect Peralta to look more like his 2022 to 2024 self.
SP Nick Pivetta SD
2025 season stats
ERA: 2.87
xERA: 3.97
xFIP: 3.85
SIERA: 3.69
Nick Pivetta is entering his tenth year and coming off his best season in the MLB. Not only was his ERA below 4.00 for the first time, but it was below 3.00. Naturally, we would expect some regression in cases like this, unless there was a substantive alteration of pitch mix or an increase in velocity (neither of which occurred).
The good news is that playing in Petco Park can right a lot of wrongs. San Diego’s home park is the third-best for pitchers according to StatCast. Ironically, Pivetta had been stuck in hitters’ parks for his entire career up until 2025. Pivetta’s peripheral stats had been BETTER than his ERA in every season. This pendulum swing can be sustained to a certain degree, and we can expect an ERA closer to the 3.50 range.
SP Trevor Rogers BAL
2025 season stats
ERA: 1.81
xERA: 3.40
xFIP: 3.64
SIERA: 3.75
Trevor Rogers is the poster boy for regression in 2026. His 2025 season was miraculous for anyone lucky enough to pick him up off the waiver wire. The question for Rogers is not whether he will regress; it is by how much. Rogers’ career has been a roller coaster. He has two elite ERA seasons (2021 and 2025), and four with an ERA above 4.00 (2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024).
Playing at Camden Yards vs. loanDepot Park in Miami is a significant drop-off, as it favors hitting. However, injuries and inconsistency have marred his career thus far, but he is healthy at the moment, and maybe a change of scenery was necessary. If his regression leads to an ERA around 3.50, then he is a fantastic pick in his fantasy ADP range of 150-175.
SP Carlos Rodon NYY
2025 season stats
ERA: 3.09
xERA: 3.34
xFIP: 3.89
SIERA: 3.92
Not only is Rodon a regression candidate, but he is coming off elbow surgery this offseason. Luckily, the surgery was to remove bone spurs rather than Tommy John surgery. Nevertheless, Rodon is a risky pick in 2026 due to his two issues. The veteran SP has several fantastic fantasy seasons since 2021, but has a concerning injury history overall.
Also, Rodon experienced his lowest average fastball velocity in 2025 since 2020. Maybe the elbow surgery helps him bounce back, but at 33 years old, it is a harder ask. 2023 was unkind to Rodon (6.85 ERA), while 2024 is likely much more in line with what to expect in 2026 (3.96 ERA). At his ADP near pick 200, it is fine to take a shot on the potential fantasy ace and stash him on IL. However, in leagues like the NFBC, where IL spots are not available, I am much less inclined to take a shot.
RP Kenley Jansen DET
2025 season stats
ERA: 2.59
xERA: 3.73
xFIP: 4.60
SIERA: 3.94
I hate to be ageist, but I will absolutely be ageist in this instance. He cannot keep getting away with it. Kenley Jansen is on the border of being completely washed and refusing to jump off. His luck has run its course and will give out at some point this season. Jansen has outperformed his peripherals in five of the past six seasons, but they have never been as bad overall as in 2025. Something has to give soon, and it will likely come sometime midseason.
Jansen is expected to see a bulk of the saves early this season, and on a good team, but they will only eat so many incoming blow-ups. Eventually, the Tigers will have to make a decision and cut their losses. Luckily, they have some experience beyond the extremely experienced Jansen. Whether Will Vest or Kyle Finnegan (or both, knowing A.J. Hinch) closes, they will have a solid option for the ninth inning after Jansen is put out to pasture. My money is on Finnegan, given his career save total and his improvement in Detroit last year (albeit through just 18 innings).
