The Rays starters had three pitchers throw 150 or more innings in 2025 (Pepiot at 167, Baz at 166, and Rasmussen just made it with 150), which should be viewed as an acoomplishment. The last time that happened was in 2016 when Chris Archer eclipsed 200, Jake Odorizzi threw 187, and Drew Smyly added 175.
The volume of innings and health of the rotation in 2025 was impressive, but their production was roughly average – even accounting for Steinbrenner Field being one of the more HR-friendly parks in the league. The Rays starters ranked 15th in ERA, 21st in FIP, and 13th in xFIP. The accomplished this average production by filling up the zone and being above average in managing quality of contact; ranking 3rd in zone rate and 6th in ground ball rate.
When choosing which key performance indicators to analyze, I initially wanted to look at the inverse of what I have been doing for batters. However, there wasn’t much to decipher from zone minus out-of-zone swing rates and 90th percentile EVs for pitchers because those are more batter-centric data points. There isn’t much difference in those measurements for pitchers, and they all kind of cluster around league average.
The pitcher-centric metrics that provided the most useful insight were:
- strike rate to measure command (and somewhat by proxy, chases)
- zone rate to measure control
- contact rate to measure the ability to generate whiffs
- hardhit rate to measure EV suppression, and
- ground ball rate plus infield fly ball rate to measure quality of contact.
Here’s how the Rays starters with at least 10 IP last season performed in each key performance indicator (I know Seymour and Boyle had some relief appearances, but they were predominantly in bulk/starter roles):
| Player | IP | Strike% | Zone% | Contact% | Hardhit% | GB+IFFB% |
| Ryan Pepiot | 167.2 | 64.4% | 53.7% | 76.6% | 42.5% | 48.3% |
| Shane Baz | 166.1 | 65.0% | 54.0% | 76.1% | 39.4% | 57.5% |
| Drew Rasmussen | 150.0 | 65.5% | 55.2% | 80.5% | 43.3% | 57.2% |
| Zack Littell | 133.1 | 67.7% | 56.3% | 82.3% | 42.2% | 50.6% |
| Taj Bradley | 111.1 | 62.7% | 52.2% | 79.0% | 37.8% | 58.2% |
| Ian Seymour | 57.0 | 65.2% | 54.9% | 75.6% | 37.8% | 41.3% |
| Adrian Houser | 56.1 | 66.1% | 52.9% | 83.0% | 50.3% | 55.7% |
| Joe Boyle | 52.0 | 61.0% | 55.2% | 74.4% | 46.0% | 49.1% |
| Total | 65.1% | 54.4% | 78.7% | 42.1% | 53.6% | |
| League Average 2025 | 64.1% | 52.6% | 77.7% | 41.6% | 51.1% |
Right away we can see they were very much a league average rotation, and the key performance indicators mirror their middling production in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
They were a typical Rays rotation in their above average strike and zone rates, and their contact management is evident in their elevated GB+IFFB% to hedge their slightly below average whiff generation and EV suppression.
Previewing the 2026 Group
Looking ahead to 2026, the rotation will be looking to replace over half of the innings they got from their starters last season with the departures of Baz, Littell, Bradley, and Houser. It will be tough to replace Baz’s combination of plus whiff generation and plus contact management with above average control and command. But the combination of Matz and Martinez gives the team a safe floor as these are two guys who have above average control and command while also featuring plus contact management skills.
I’ve got some conservative innings estimates for the current group of starters and bulk pitchers on the 40-man, and I’ll use their data from 2024-2025 in the key performance indicators mentioned above to see how this group could perform in the majors.
Note: I used McClanahan’s data from 2022-2023 because he hasn’t pitched since then, and Scholtens only had a handful of innings in the majors last year (he didn’t pitch in 2024) so I used his 2025 AAA data.
Not included: Griffin Jax, who is an interesting candidate to start, but it seems like he’ll be in the bullpen for now.
| Player | IP | Strike% | Zone% | Contact% | Hardhit% | GB+IFFB% |
| Ryan Pepiot | 175.0 | 64.2% | 52.4% | 75.1% | 40.2% | 49.5% |
| Drew Rasmussen | 150.0 | 65.9% | 55.0% | 78.9% | 42.2% | 57.3% |
| Nick Martinez | 125.0 | 66.0% | 54.7% | 80.4% | 32.6% | 49.1% |
| Steven Matz | 125.0 | 66.8% | 57.1% | 83.5% | 36.9% | 58.0% |
| Shane McClanahan | 75.0 | 66.9% | 51.5% | 68.8% | 36.7% | 55.1% |
| Joe Boyle | 75.0 | 58.5% | 51.7% | 73.6% | 43.3% | 51.9% |
| Ian Seymour | 75.0 | 65.2% | 54.9% | 75.6% | 35.1% | 41.3% |
| Yoendrys Gomez | 50.0 | 62.9% | 52.1% | 77.0% | 39.3% | 43.7% |
| Jesse Scholtens | 25.0 | 64.8% | 47.0% | 73.6% | 34.1% | 52.6% |
| Total | 875.0 | 64.9% | 53.8% | 77.2% | 38.3% | 51.77% |
| Rays Rotation 2025 | 65.1% | 54.4% | 78.7% | 42.1% | 53.6% | |
| League Average 2025 | 64.1% | 52.6% | 77.7% | 41.6% | 51.1% |
The group should show nearly the same command and control as they did last year, and there’s a higher potential for more whiff generation.
One reason there should be more swing-and-miss is because pitches are sharper at the Trop thanks to the indoor environment. Tropicana Field consistently ranks as one of the best – if not the best – parks for strikeouts. Another reason the whiff generation should be better in 2026 is with guys like McClanahan, Boyle, and Seymour could contribute more innings.
McClanahan will be on a limit for sure, but I think something in the 75-100 IP range should be reasonable for him. The same could be said for Boyle and Seymour if they’re deemed ready to step into a larger role and there’s an opportunity to do so.
The guys who could be workhorses in the rotation in Pepiot, Martinez, and (to a lesser extent but still possible) Matz are all above average in their ability to suppress EVs and manage contact to some degree. These three help raise the floor of the unit while guys like Rasmussen and McClanahan can take over a game and flat-out dominate when they’re on and healthy. Gomez and Scholtens seem to be serviceable backend starter types, but I don’t anticipate big roles for either of them. They can both throw strikes and cover innings and that has value.
The biggest question mark here is that there isn’t a clear front-of-the-rotation guy who is capable of taking over a big game in October.
McClanahan can easily be that guy if he’s healthy, but the workload management he’ll face might limit his impact in the postseason. The only other guy on the current 40-man who can match his level of plus raw stuff across the board is Boyle. However, even with his improvements since joining the Rays, he needs his command to take at least another step or two forward before he could be considered for that kind of role.
I mean no disrespect to Rasmussen; he has above average command, control, and stuff, but he can’t match McClanahan or Boyle in their ability to flat out bully hitters with multiple pitches. Rasmussen is heavily fastball-focused which can be great for throwing strikes, but he’s more of a quality of contact connoisseur than whiff warrior. What makes McClanahan special is that he can be both. Boyle has really only been a whiff guy in the majors, but he has shown he can be both when his command is there.
I expect this group to be better than last season with the blend of different skill sets and moving back to the pitcher-friendly Trop. This group does have fairly significant upside if at least one of Boyle or McClanahan could take a step forward in 2026, and they frankly need at least one of them to emerge as a viable postseason weapon. Nobody else in the rotation can match the raw stuff that those two feature. Boyle’s trends in both his command and control since joining the Rays have been exciting and better than expected, and McClanahan appears to be fully healthy for the first time in a while.
This was an interesting exercise to do for all of the position groups. It was definitely more challenging for the rotation because of the fluidity of roles for certain guys, so I won’t be doing this for the bullpen like I initially planned.
My very lazy analysis of the bullpen is that they will be good because they’re always pretty good. The were first in xFIP (to account for GMS) and 3rd in whiff rate last season while maintaining above average control and command data. The roles are very fluid, but I do think Baker and Bigge could see more higher leverage opportunities than one might expect. If the bullpen struggles, there are plenty of internal candidates (including some interesting NRIs) who can help. The front office also has plenty of resources to address any needs they might have there as the year goes on. Manuel Rodriguez should also provide some nice reinforcements later in the summer.
