No Major League Baseball team has played more than seven games as of February 25, and none of them have actually counted for anything, but what else are we going to use to evaluate who we need for our fantasy baseball squads? This early in Spring Training, we are living and dying by every home run and 99-mile-per-hour pitch. It’s all we’ve got!
In the aggregate, Spring Training stats are mostly meaningless, but things like playing time, usage, and lineup spots can be useful information. Players who are buzzy and end up with tremendous or terrible springs are also hard to ignore.
There are still several big names yet to debut in Spring Training, and many names may not see the field at all until the regular season (curse you, hamate bone!). But most players are several games into 2025 Spring Training, including many of the fringe fantasy baseball pieces who are fighting for a job and playing time. This piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall in the first week of Spring Training games.
ADP is taken from the past seven days of NFBC drafts.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Be sure to sign up for one of our Razzball Commenter Leagues, like this one, drafting Saturday night 2/28 at 10 ET / 7 PT
Spring Training Risers
Mookie Betts (SS), Los Angeles Dodgers – NFBC ADP: 55.8
There’s a lot of positive spin on why Mookie Betts could revert to a top-30 player in 2025. Betts lost nearly 20 pounds early in 2025 due to a severe stomach illness and later fractured a toe. He also cited the mental strain of learning a new position (shortstop) while dealing with the pressure of being a defending champion. Those health issues and positional issues appear to all be behind him. The addition of Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers’ lineup is expected to provide better protection and more RBI opportunities, as Betts is slated to hit third behind Ohtani and Tucker. All that is the good news.
There aren’t many other places Betts can go but up after the career-worst .258/.326/.406 slash line with a .148 ISO in 2025. Projections across the board are calling for him to hit 24 home runs, drive in 95 runs, and hit .275. All of Betts’ expected numbers in 2025 were wildly higher than his actual production, so there was also some bad luck mixed into the health problems. If some of those things course-correct this year, Betts will be elite again, and drafters are starting to notice.
Austin Riley (3B), Atlanta Braves – NFBC ADP: 63.9
The big question surrounding Austin Riley in 2026 is: Can he stay healthy? Production has never been the problem with Riley when healthy, but staying on the field the last two seasons has been his weakness. Riley played in at least 159 games for three straight seasons before 2024. He had at least 30 home runs, 90 runs, and 90 RBI in those three years as well, but the injury bug hit in 2024, and he has played 110 games and 102 games over the last two seasons. He has not reached 20 home runs or 60 RBI in either of those years. Can he bounce back and produce like before since he is just 29 years old? The injury history says these might have been fluky.
In 2024, he broke a hand on a hit-by-pitch, but that has now fully healed. In 2025, he had an abdominal injury, but he had surgery in August, and all seems to be fully healed at this point in the spring. Fantasy baseball managers are taking advantage of the dip from his high ADP over the last three years and taking him outside the fifth round in 12-team leagues. If he can get back to form, he is right in his prime hitting years, and fantasy managers can expect another 30-90-90 season in the top half of the Atlanta Braves batting order.
Konnor Griffin (SS), Pittsburgh Pirates – NFBC ADP: 185.2
Top prospect Konnor Griffin has already blasted two massive home runs this spring and looks like the elite offensive force evaluators have seen for years. The real question for Konnor Griffin is whether he will crack the opening day roster and spend the season as the Pirates’ starting shortstop. At pick 185 and with the pedigree that comes with him, it may not matter if he starts in the first game or the 25th game; he is good enough to return value in just 130 games.
The risk, of course, is that he is just 19 years old and has just 21 games at the Double-A level. There is always a risk of young players falling on their faces, but Griffin is supposed to be one of the special ones. Drafters are starting to take notice in redraft leagues, as his ADP has been creeping up since the beginning of 2026.
Spring Training Fallers
Rafael Devers (1B), San Francisco Giants – NFBC ADP: 53.4
After his mid-2025 trade from Boston to San Francisco, Rafael Devers moved from Fenway Park (normally strong for left-handed power) to Oracle Park, which heavily depresses offense. His strikeout rate ballooned to 29.4% following the trade, well above his career average. In addition, Devers is losing 3B eligibility in many fantasy leagues for 2026, significantly lowering his relative value. If Devers isn’t an ultra-elite power-hitting first baseman, is he worth a top 55 pick?
Devers’ spot has fallen five total picks in seven days, meaning he has lost 10% of his draft capital over the last week. I prefer Josh Naylor and Vinnie Pasquantino, who both go later, and I’m looking more at the elite pitchers in this range instead of Devers.
Chandler Simpson (OF), Tampa Bay Rays – NFBC ADP: 173.2
Is one mega-elite offensive skill worth the downside that comes with other parts of a player’s profile? That’s the question drafter must answer before they select Chandler Simpson this spring. Simpson could offer 40 or more steals, after 44 last year and 70 or more steals in three minor league seasons. But he has two total home runs in four years of his professional career. He has also never had more than 31 RBIs in any season.
Almost all projection systems slot Simpson in for no home runs, 30 RBI, and between 40 and 50 steals. If you load up on power in your roster early and can withstand a literal zero, Simpson is possible late in drafts, but these zero-category producers are often left behind. His draft stock has fallen more than 60 spots due to those concerns plus a minor hamstring injury.
Carlos Estevez (RP), Kansas City Royals – NFBC ADP: 101.27
How can someone who led all of Major League Baseball with 42 saves in 2025 find themselves outside the top 100 in early ADP? Saves are such a precious commodity that someone capable of 40+ should be going in the earlier rounds, right? Estevez even had a 2.45 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 2025. What’s not to love? Well, the 20% strikeout rate, for starters. That is very uncharacteristic for a closer, who typically might be up around 30%. His expected ERA in 2025 was all the way up to 3.69, a long way from his actual number, and a warning sign of what’s to come.
Estevez gave up a lot of hard contact, didn’t generate a lot of ground balls, and generally got outs in the air during his career year. That is not a recipe for success at Kauffman Field, as the team has decided to move in the fences for 2026, which should greatly benefit opposing batters. We can probably pencil Estevez in for 20-25 saves, but it won’t come with sparkling ratios as he had in 2025. Most projection systems give Carlos Estevez an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range for 2026, and the projections are all a long way from 40 saves.
