The best time of the year is finally upon us, and once again, it will be Duke cutting nets as “One Shining Moment” blares over the speakers.
I know, I know. Couldn’t I have come up with a more original ending?
I asked myself the same question, especially in a field loaded with talent and experienced coaches. But then Duke went and won the ACC tournament without its superstar. And even though the league is down, I became even more convinced that the Blue Devils are bound to do something special this postseason.
Jon Scheyer is in only his third season, but he has Coach K, arguably the best mentor in coaching, just one phone call away, a huge advantage during the NCAA Tournament. He also won a title as a Duke player. He knows what it takes and, more importantly, will know how to get that out of his players.
It helps, of course, to have Cooper Flagg on your roster. While I tend to side with my colleague Joe Rexrode, who argues that Auburn’s Johni Broome should be the national player of the year, Flagg is who I want to have the ball at the end of the game with the season on the line. His ability to create — for himself and others — is so huge this time of year. And I believe those early losses in November, to Kentucky and Kansas, when Flagg had critical turnovers at crucial moments, will benefit him now.
This is setting up to be an especially interesting March in the wake of conference realignment and the SEC’s and Big Ten’s continued quest for world dominance. I loved this seeding nugget from my colleague John Hollinger: A record 14 SEC teams made the field, but just 13 were seeded equal or better in the NCAA Tournament compared with their SEC tournament seedings. Arkansas (No. 9 SEC, No. 10 NCAA) was the lone exception.
You probably won’t be surprised to learn that two SEC teams are in my Final Four. But you definitely will be surprised at which teams they are. Now, for the rest of the bracket …
South region
• Auburn is the No. 1 seed here, led by Broome. The Tigers are a machine, and I expect them to roll through the first few rounds, even though their second-round game versus either Creighton or Louisville could get tricky. But let’s back up and start at the beginning.
• Everyone wants to discuss North Carolina because of the Tar Heels’ last-minute inclusion. But let’s not waste time on it, because San Diego State is beating UNC in the Play-In game anyway.
• I’m a little surprised Creighton didn’t earn higher than a No. 8 seed, and no one is going to look forward to playing Ryan Kalkbrenner, one of the best big men in the country. Louisville has had a tremendous season under first-year coach Pat Kelsey, but I’m picking Creighton to advance because the Bluejays have been tested in the Big East and the Cardinals played in the ACC.
• Twelve over five is always a popular upset pick, and I decided two months ago that the Big West was going to cause problems in the NCAA Tournament. I like UC San Diego, which owns the nation’s longest win streak at 15 games, to extend its first-ever NCAA Tournament stay into the Sweet 16, knocking off No. 5 Michigan and then taking care of business against the No. 13 Yale Bulldogs, who I’m also picking to upset Texas A&M. A No. 12-No. 13 matchup in the round of 32 — March Madness is truly the best.
• I was excited to pick Iowa State to make a little run and make a comment about getting your “smedium” shirts ready to go in honor of coach T.J. Otzelberger, but then he announced that the Cyclones will be missing Keshon Gilbert because of a lingering groin strain. That’s a big loss. I’ll pick Iowa State to win its first game over Lipscomb and then head back to Ames.
• It’ll go chalk other than that, though, until we get to the regional final in Atlanta. Yes, Auburn and Bruce Pearl are the No. 1 overall seed, and it’s a distinction they earned. The SEC has prepared the Tigers like no other. But this time of year, I’m a big believer in the coaches as the separator, and in Tom Izzo I (always) trust. The Spartans are always tough and physical, and when teams are starting to get tired deep in the NCAA Tournament, rebounding matters a lot. This season, the Spartans outrebounded their opponents by nine boards per game. But the X-factor here is Michigan State freshman Jase Richardson, the son of dunking sensation Jason Richardson (also an MSU star in his day). Jase, of course, will be playing in his first NCAA Tournament. Though some newcomers wilt under the spotlight, I expect Richardson to star — and increase his NBA Draft stock along the way.
West region
• This is a stacked region when it comes to coaching powerhouses. Six coaches in the NCAA Tournament have won a national championship, and three are in this region alone. I mean, Rick Pitino versus John Calipari? What have we done to deserve this beautiful chaos?
• I’m getting ahead of myself, though. Let’s talk Florida first. Is anyone in the country playing as well as the Gators? Probably not. But I’m not picking the Gators to the Final Four because of momentum. I’m picking them because they have a lot of talent. I also like their draw. Matching up against the two-time defending champs isn’t exactly a cakewalk, but UConn has been so all over the place this season that picking Florida to advance to the Sweet 16 was a no-brainer.
• The upsets in this region will come in the first round with another No. 12 over No. 5, and No. 13 over No. 4. First, I am picking against Memphis because the Tigers drive me bonkers. Memphis could be the No. 1 overall seed playing the No. 68 team, and I would still pick against it. PJ Haggerty is a terrific scorer — an NBA superstar in waiting, fine. All Memphis does is play down to the level of its competition. You might be able to get away with that in the AAC, but you can’t in the NCAA Tournament.
• I’m also picking Grand Canyon to upset Maryland in the first round, which will give us another No. 12-No. 13 game in the round of 32. This is nothing personal against Maryland. It’s because GCU is one of the best and most consistent mid-major programs in the country (this is the Antelopes’ fourth NCAA appearance in the past five years; they upset Saint Mary’s last year).
• The second-round matchup that’s going to have hoopheads drooling is Pitino versus Calipari … I mean, St. John’s versus Arkansas. And I think we’re going to get it because, wow, Kansas is a mess lately. I’m also rolling with Missouri, one of the best stories in the season, to the Sweet 16.
• Tie score, one shot left and, personally, I’m handing the clipboard to Pitino to draw up a winning play. Of all the great coaches in the tournament, Pitino is the one I’d trust the most in crunchtime. But when RJ Luis and the Red Storm meet Walter Clayton Jr. and the Gators, I don’t think good play calling is going to be the difference-maker.
East region
• Flagg getting hurt is the best thing that could have happened to top-seeded Duke. Yes, I said it. Now, let’s add the biggest caveat ever: This is assuming he is fully healthy by the time the Blue Devils tip off Friday (which I feel confident he will be). Flagg, the other national player of the year favorite and the lock for national freshman of the year, is probably playing in the only NCAA Tournament of his college career. And the single best thing for him going into the next three weeks was an uptick in production from his teammates. Learning to win without Flagg in the ACC tournament was a huge step forward for the Blue Devils. Now they’ll get him back, and all that firepower — and confidence — will propel the Blue Devils to San Antonio.
• But first they have an intriguing Sweet 16 matchup with Arizona and standout guard Caleb Love, formerly of UNC, who no doubt carried some Duke hatred to Tucson when he transferred two years ago. As I said above, No. 12 over No. 5 — and, increasingly, No. 13 over No. 4 — is a popular upset pick. But in this region, Arizona and Oregon are going to win their first-round games to give us a throwback Pac-12 matchup in the round of 32 (RIP to the conference of champions). Oregon is always a dangerous team — and a smart pick — in March because coach Dana Altman is a master at getting his squads to peak at the right time. But I’ll give Arizona and redshirt sophomore Henri Veesaar the edge over the Ducks.
• BYU is my dark horse in this region, and I’m picking the Cougars to surprise and make an Elite Eight run. To be honest, I’m also a little shocked at this selection, but it’s the time of year to lean into Cinderella. Plus, when Richie Saunders gets rolling, he’s hard to stop. BYU won’t be intimidated by anyone. Remember: Before the unfortunate matchup with Houston in the Big 12 tournament, the Cougars had won nine in a row.
• Sticking with my theme of “believe in teams west of the Rockies,” I’ll also take Saint Mary’s to beat Vanderbilt in the first round and then upset Alabama in the second round. The Gaels are a tough, talented and, most importantly, veteran squad. They’re led by one of my favorite players: crafty point guard Augustas Marciulionis. Alabama, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, and it catches up with the Tide this week.
• There’s no such thing as an easy game in the tournament, but Duke should have a relatively smooth path to the Final Four. By the time it meets BYU in the regional final, the Cougars’ March magic will be up.
Midwest region
• Picking a bracket is only fun if you’re willing to take chances, and with that in mind, I present the Final Four-bound Kentucky Wildcats. Is it risky? Of course. Is it statistically a good choice? Probably not, but I’m a journalist, not a mathematician. Am I second-guessing my decision upon remembering that Jaxson Robinson is out for the season? Yes. But I remembered this after I’d picked my bracket — using pen, not pencil — and sent it to my editor. So here we are. I’m going all in on Mark Pope, Amari Williams and Otega Oweh. Of course, for this prediction to come true, the Wildcats will have to score and score a lot, because they’re not exactly known for lockdown defense (rated No. 56 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency … yikes).
• Leaning into my West Coast residency and belief in mid-majors, I am also picking Utah State to upset UCLA in the first round. But if the Bruins go on any sort of run, it is likely to be because of the forward tandem of Tyler Bilodeau and Aday Mara.
• Houston is a lot of people’s sleeper pick to win the national championship, although I ask you: How much of a sleeper can you really be if you’re a No. 1 seed? Still, the second-round matchup with Gonzaga will be tough given the Zags’ history — nine straight Sweet 16 appearances — and the play of point guard Ryan Nembhard. That said, GU can’t really defend anyone this season, let alone L.J. Cryer and company.
• Remember what I said above about coaching being the separator? That’s why I’m picking Purdue to get to the Sweet 16: Matt Painter is that good, and Braden Smith is such a steady, smart point guard, which typically translates to wins in March.
• You might be wondering about my hesitancy on No. 2-seed Tennessee, especially considering the Vols just made an impressive run through the SEC tournament. But I’m not a big believer in momentum from the conference tournament, so *shrug.*
(Photo of Duke’s Cooper Flagg: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
