Major League Baseball has now played 18 of 26 weeks this season, which means we have a large statistical basis, but not a whole season, to evaluate players for our fantasy baseball squads. With the All-Star Break now past us and the trade deadline right in our faces, who have been some of the more interesting risers and fallers?
In the aggregate, 18 weeks of production is not a lot of information to use when evaluating players for the rest of the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, lineup placement, platoon splits, and other factors when trying to determine what to do with tough player choices.
This piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall through the first 18 weeks of games. This will hopefully give us an idea of what to do with these players moving forward.
Roster percentages (from Yahoo) and stats include all games finished by July 29th.
MLB Risers
Ceddanne Rafaela (2B/SS/OF), Boston Red Sox
Raise your hand if you thought Ceddanne Rafael was going to settle into a light-hitting center fielder and middle infielder after his first two seasons in the majors. My hand is certainly raised. In 2023 and 2024, Rafaela had two straight years where he hit less than .250, had an OBP under .300, and a SLG under .400. He stole 19 bases last season in 152 games, which is cool, but he had 17 total home runs across two seasons and 180 games.
Now, over the last 30 days, Rafaela has turned into a skinny Johnny Damon out there in Fenway Park. He is hitting .294/.315/.576 with five home runs and three steals in his last 90 plate appearances. He is striking out only 12% of the time in that span and has the second-highest ISO on the team, next to only Jarren Duran. He has 15 runs, 16 RBI, and has evolved into a five-category contributor in his age-24 season.
Much of the success has to do with the decrease in strikeouts. Two years ago, he struck out 31.5% of the time. Last year, it was 26%. This season? It’s only 18.5% through 103 games. That’s allowed his hard-hit rate and his barrel rate to go way up in 2025, and he’s finally putting a complete hitting package together for Boston.
Kyle Stowers (OF), Miami Marlins
Somehow, the two best players in baseball over the last month have been Nick Kurtz of the Athletics and Kyle Stowers of the Miami Marlins. Rob Manfred must be furious. He can’t in his right mind feature either of these two teams on Sunday Night Baseball or any other prime spot. The best players are supposed to be on the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers, right, Rob? Well, Kyle Stowers would have something to say about that in the last 30 days. He has the second-highest wOBA in baseball (.541) and is hitting .384/.471/.863.
In that time, Stowers has 10 home runs, 20 RBI, and two steals for good measure. He walks more than 12% of the time and is doing all of this as the only real threat in the Miami lineup? Why are opposing pitchers even pitching to him right now? Now 27 years old, Stowers has career-highs in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, exit velocity, and expected slugging. How do you know what Stowers is doing is real? His slugging percentage on the season is .577. His expected slugging (xSLG)? It’s .576.
Stowers made massive gains this season in his flyball rate and his line drive rate. That’s why he has 23 home runs already and is on pace now for more than 30 before the season ends. This is a true breakout, star-making season. Which probably means the Marlins will trade him by this time next year, and Rob Manfred will get his wish.
Eury Perez (SP), Miami Marlins
Another Marlins player? This world really is falling apart. But what’s not falling apart is Eury Perez’s pitch repertoire after he came back from Tommy John surgery that had kept him out since April of 2024. In his last 30 days (five starts), Perez looks like the dominant arm the Marlins signed out of the Dominican Republic when he was just 16 years old. Perez has always been a fireballer with wicked stuff, and all of that is coming together over the last month.
Across those five starts, he has 28 innings pitched, a 1.29 ERA, 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings, and a 3-1 record. He has a microscopic 0.32 home runs allowed per nine innings rate, and batters are hitting just .190 on the balls he gives up in play. And remember, this is all coming from a 22-year-old who missed a year and a half from elbow surgery. Imagine what Eury Perez could be when he actually reaches his prime in 3-4 years?
There is something special going on in Miami with these young players. If only they knew how to build on it and sustain it.
MLB Fallers
Lawrence Butler (OF), Athletics
The Athletics keep rolling Lawrence Butler out there every day in their leadoff spot, but he has been truly awful for about a month, and it has gotten even worse over the last two weeks. Over his last 13 games, Butler is hitting .106/.125/.234 with a crazy 40% strikeout rate. In a season that’s going nowhere for them, I guess they have the luxury of letting Butler fight through these struggles. But at some point, do they realize that this isn’t just a slump, but something that needs to be examined and fixed?
After breaking out with a big season in 2024, everything has collapsed in his age-24 season in 2025. His strikeout rate is up over five percentage points. His slugging percentage is down 80 points. The hard contact and barrel rate both went way down compared to last season. What looks to be the problem is twofold. One, Butler is hitting almost 47% of his batted balls on the ground. Even with someone with Butler’s speed, that is a problem. Two, his contact rate has plummeted from 75% last season to 68% this year. Pitchers apparently know how to pitch to him now, because his swinging strike rate is more than 25% higher than last season.
TJ Friedl (OF), Cincinnati Reds
If you want your leadoff man to draw walks and get a runner on first base, TJ Friedl is your man. Lately, if you want Friedl to do literally anything else at the plate, you have been completely out of luck. TJ Friedl, over the last two weeks, has a 14.6% walk rate and is getting on base 40% of the time. It’s a good thing that part of his game is still strong, because the rest is abysmal. His batting average is .200. His slugging percentage is .314. He has one home run, three RBI, and no steals in his last 50 plate appearances.
What makes it so strange is that his strikeout rate is only 8% in that time, so he is clearly seeing the ball very well. He is just not making good contact, not driving the ball, and very rarely getting barrels on his pitches. In fact, his barrel rate this year is a meager 3.4%, and his hard-hit rate has fallen two percentage points compared to 2024. He may have a .269 batting average on the season, but Statcast data shows that the expected number is more like .242. If you’re in an OBP league and getting value out of Friedl that way, congratulations. Otherwise, he has been an anchor on your lineup for the better part of a month.
Yusei Kikuchi (SP), Los Angeles Angels
Last season, when the Astros traded for Yusei Kikuchi at the trade deadline, he was phenomenal the rest of the season. He had a 3.49 ERA, 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and allowed just 1.1 home runs per nine innings in the second half. He parlayed that success into a three-year, $63 million contract with the Angels this offseason. Things looked good to start the season, but the wheels have completely fallen off lately for Kikuchi. In his last six starts (31 innings), Kikuchi has a 4.88 ERA and is giving up almost three walks per nine innings and 1.75 home runs per nine.
Two main things seem to be the problem compared to last season. First is all the walks. After a 2.25 walks per nine ratio in 2024, that’s up over 3.8 this season. He isn’t generating the swinging strikes or the outside zone swing rate that he did last season. The second problem is the groundballs. He has lost four percentage points of ground balls from 2024 to 2025. His exit velocity allowed is higher, and batters are squaring up the ball and getting it in the air a lot more against Kikuchi this year than in seasons past.
