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(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Just 72 hours ago in this space, we posited that Tennessee had taken over the final No. 1 seed from Arizona. Then on Saturday, the Volunteers lost at home to Kentucky. Arizona lost at USC. And UNC beat Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. So now what?

While it’s not Blind Resume Challenge time, take a look at these three with the names gone and decide which one deserves the No. 4 overall seed (numbers as of Sunday night).

That is … so close. Team A is Arizona, Team B is Tennessee and Team C is UNC. Missing from the chart is Arizona’s Quad 3 loss at Oregon State — the other two contenders don’t have a setback outside the first two quads. Throw in the Wildcats’ losses to Stanford and USC, and that convinces us that it’s going to be the Volunteers or Tar Heels on the top line. But which one?

It’s so tight that North Carolina’s nonconference home win over Tennessee might serve as the de facto tiebreaker. For now, we’re going to stick with the Vols, whom we feel have the better wins, better resume average and played in a tougher conference. But this could very well come down to how both teams play in their conference tournaments this week.

Speaking of conference tournaments, congrats to Morehead State, Longwood, Drake and Stetson for capturing the first four official spots in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. (Teams that have clinched auto bids are signified in green on our seed list below). Of those, Drake was of course the most notable, as we had the Bulldogs as our final at-large team the past two weeks. Indiana State will now have to sweat out Selection Sunday, but we believe the Sycamores, who entered Sunday No. 26 in the NET and 34th in Strength of Record, should still get an invite — as long as there are not too many bid thieves. They’ll need lots of terry cloth in Terre Haute for all the sweating these next six days. Please, selection committee: do not rob America of getting to see Robbie Avila (aka “Larry Blurred,” aka “Cream Abdul-Jabbar”) during March Madness.

Our last team in: Texas A&M. The Aggies had played their way out of the field and now may be back. They’re just 18-13 overall but have five Quad 1 wins, are 11-9 in the first two quads and .500 on the road with a top-20 schedule, per the NET. Plus wins over Iowa State, Tennessee and Kentucky. Is that enough? No idea! There’s not much separating bubble teams like A&M, Villanova, Wake Forest, New Mexico, Colorado and others right now. It likely will all come down to how those teams play in their conference tournaments. Which is what makes this week so much fun.

Bracket Watch will appear daily between now and Sunday, with a short update before the 6 p.m. ET selection show if warranted.

The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE.

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