The Philadelphia Phillies finished 14 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings, but came away victorious in the Division Series over the NL East champs for the second straight season. Philadelphia spent most of the offseason doubling down on its core with new long-term contracts for Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Did the Phillies do enough this offseason to cement their status as a top-flight contender? It remains to be seen.
Where were they in 2023?
The Phillies had a tough start to 2023 that lasted well into June. They were seven games under .500 on June 2 after dropping a game to the Nationals. Bryce Harper didn’t join the team until May 2, following UCL surgery on his right arm. Rhys Hoskins didn’t play at all in 2023 after tearing the ACL in his left knee in a Spring Training game. Christian Pache, acquired from the Athletics after being traded from the Braves, couldn’t stay healthy either. Ranger Suarez spent half the year on the shelf with a bad elbow and a bad hamstring.
They did manage to shake the injury bug and started to build momentum in June. The Phillies were well in the Braves’ rear view by then. However, a six-game winning streak kicked off an 18-6 stretch and was the opening of a 65-40 warpath into the postseason and eventually Game 7 of the NLCS as the top NL Wild Card winner.
The Phillies drew the Marlins in the first round of the playoffs and made short work of them. They won Game 1 by the score of 4-1 and Game 2 by a 7-1 score. The Marlins were no match for Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola in October. They then faced the Braves in the NLDS and sent Ranger Suarez and an army on relievers to best Atlanta in Game 1, Yeah, you know what happened (something-something maybe don’t give Bryce Harper middle-middle 80 MPH changeups) and the Phillies’ pitchers snuffed out any threat of them losing the series. The Phillies faced the 6-seed 84-win Diamondbacks in the NLCS because baseball’s postseason isn’t random at all, nope. The Phillies took a 3-2 NLCS lead back home where Aaron Nola took the mound. They lost Game 6 by a score of 5-1 and eventually the entire series as well.
Offensively, the Phillies were led by Bryce Harper after a month’s absence, His 142 wRC+ led all Phillies’ starters and looked good, too: .293/.401/.499 line with 24 homers. Kyle Schwarber hit leadoff and put up a Rob Deereish .197/.343/.474 line with 47 HRs, while playing (loitering? merely existing?) in left field. Defense has been optional lately in Philadelphia, but they were solid up the middle with Trea Turner at shortstop and Bryson Scott at second base. Johan Rojas was called up from the minors and did a great job holding down center field while batting at a .302/.342/.430 clip. Altogether, the Phillies’ position players were 12th in MLB.
From a starting pitching standpoint, their front four starters of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, and Ranger Suarez led the charge. Zack Wheeler piled up 5.9 fWAR and a 212/39 K/BB rate as he mowed his way through the National League. His combination of sheer innings bulk and overall effectiveness made him MLB’s most valuable pitcher. Aaron Nola set himself up very well for his walk year with a 4.03 FIP and 3.9 fWAR. Taijuan Walker more or less imploded by the end of the year, but before then, managed to compile a solid, 2.5 fWAR season as well. Ranger Suarez fought off injury to represent the lefty portion of the rotation and was solid down the stretch, compiling 2.4 fWAR in just 125 innings.
Where Philadelphia really took great strides last season was in the bullpen. They were seventh in ERA and fifth in FIP. That was a huge improvement from seasons past. You used the count on Philly to fumble games late by defense or pitching. This year, you could count on them to square things away. Matt Strahm, Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto, and even Craig Kimbrel were part of one of the best bullpens in baseball. Didn’t see that one coming.
Overall, the Phillies finished with far and away the league’s best pitching, which helped propel a mediocre position player performance to 90 wins.
What did they do in the offseason?
The biggest move in the 2023 offseason for the Phillies was re-signing Aaron Nola. His deal pays the 31-year-old $172 million over the next seven years. Philadelphia was able to fend off a bevy of other teams (depending on which report you believe) including the Braves and the Dodgers. The deal will likely keep Nola in Philadelphia for life if things go well, or at least until they to bury some dead money in the coming years. The Phillies also splashed the cash on a Zach Wheeler extension. They had no interest in allowing Wheeler to hit the open market next year and gave him a $42 million average annual value to lock him down. While they will dedicate nearly $60 million next year to retain the same starting rotation from last year, the rotation they have is solid-at-worst, and something akin to the best unit in baseball.
Outside of these large contracts, the rest of the transactions for the club pretty modest. Whit Merrifield was brought in for the bench and late-inning defense. Spencer Turnbull was brought to compete for the fifth starter spot. The Phillies brought in the typical slew of pitchers on minor league deals. That’s pretty much it. They moved on from Craig Kimbrel and the injured Rhys Hoskins.
Where are they hoping to go?
It’s hard to know exactly what the Phillies’ organization as a whole is hoping or expecting for 2024. Bryce Harper is just looking to punch a playoff ticket.
“We just got to go about it the right way, and if we do get that third Wild Card, I’ll take it,” Harper said. “I’ll take the first or second Wild Card. I’ll take the division. Anything that gets us into October.”
FanGraphs’ 2024 Depth Charts have the Phillies roster strength tied for fifth-best in baseball; they’re projected for 85 wins as a central estimate by FanGraphs, while PECOTA has them with 84 wins.
Above are the ZiPS projections for the 2024 Phillies. The word sandwich in left field stands for Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, and Jake Cave. The only real hole in the Phillies exists in right field, but at least there is power there. There are also soft spots at third base and the rest of the outfield, but Schwarber makes for a great DH (unlike many other teams that can’t really dedicate a single useful bat to the position), and the combination of Harper, Turner, and what looks like baseball’s best pitching staff (best-ish rotation, best bullpen) on paper makes them a dangerous opponent.
There doesn’t appear to be a reason the Phillies can’t make the playoffs and make a World Series run.
Braves 2023 head-to-head
The Braves were 8-5 versus the Phillies in 2023. The Braves clinched the season series and the NL East Division title in Philadelphia on September 13th.
You know what happened after that.
