Fans of the Baltimore Orioles endured have endured plenty of losing in recent seasons as the club worked its way through a rebuild that, at times, was painful. The Orioles’ Front Office preached patience and fans got a taste of what was to come when the club showed enough progress to finish 83-79 in 2022. That was the first time the club finished above .500 since 2016. In between 2016 and 2022, over a span of five seasons, the Orioles lost 100 games three times, including seasons with 110 and 115 defeats.
In the middle of this skid, the dynamic duo of Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal took over from the fired Dan Duquette, and preached regarding a renewed method to the madness as the performative rebuild carried on. The Orioles quietly stockpiled plenty of young talent and officially made the transition back to a winning team by finishing 40 games above .500 in 2023 while recording their first 100-win season since 1980. They were swept away by the eventual World Series winner Texas Rangers in the Division Series, but the Orioles are a team that appears to be on the cusp of a sustained run of success.
Perhaps one of the final nails in the coffin of the hapless Orioles of yesteryear was driven in when it was announced that the Angelos family had a deal in place to sell the franchise to a pair of private equity billionaires in David Rubenstein and Mike Arougheti. It remains to be seen what sort of changes that the new ownership group will make, but they inherit a team that is poised for greatness and now just needs some financial support in order to keep their young core together.
Where were they in 2023?
In short, the Orioles took flight to the top of the AL East. They stormed out of the gate and were 19-9 at the end of April. They were 6.5 games back in the standings on July 1, but then went 53-29 over the final three months of the season to take home the division crown. They were led by a strong young core including catcher Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. Rutschman has emerged as one of the best young players in the game and led all Baltimore hitters with 5.1 fWAR. Henderson took home the Rookie of the Year Award in the American League after slugging 28 homers while putting up 4.6 fWAR of his own. Baltimore had seven hitters that posted at least 1.5 fWAR in 2023. They finished just outside the top ten MLB teams in position player fWAR, held back by some truly heinous defense from Anthony Santander and poor production from Adam Frazier,
The pitching side of things was more of a balanced effort. Kyle Bradish came out of nowhere to post a 2.83 ERA and a 3.27 FIP in 168 2/3 innings. He led the staff with 3.8 fWAR. Top prospect Grayson Rodriguez struggled early, but returned to the majors and finished the season strong. He will figure prominently into the mix in 2024. Felix Bautista put together a monster season out of the bullpen for the Orioles and paired with right-hander Yennier Cano to become one of the best 1-2 punches in the majors. However, Bautista hurt his elbow late in the season and will miss all of the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Orioles had one of the game’s best pitching staffs, top to bottom, in 2023, even if it came as a result of some pretty weird contributions, like Kyle Gibson throwing together a 2.6 fWAR season.
If there’s one more thing that needs to be said about the Orioles in 2023, well… they outplayed their BaseRuns by a whopping 12 games, and their run differential by seven. Some of you might remember the constant refrains about FanGraphs hating the Orioles when they were last competitive because they kept outplaying meager projections to substantial degrees, and this season kind of felt like that as well. The Orioles went an insane 30-16 in one-run games and were 11-6 in extra-inning contests, which helped push their record towards their 101-win total.
What did they do in the offseason?
The Orioles added veteran closer Craig Kimbrel to the mix in early December in hope that he could fill the void left by Bautista’s injury. The move also keeps Cano in his preferred setup role. Then, as the calendar flipped to February, the Orioles made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by acquiring ace right-hander Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for pitcher DL Hall and young infielder Joey Ortiz. Burnes will be a free agent at the end of the season, but is a worthy gamble for a young Orioles team that was desperately in need for a top of the rotation arm despite the overall success of their pitching staff.
That move became even bigger after it was announced that Bradish would begin the season on the injured list after suffering a UCL sprain. Additionally, John Means got a late start to his offseason due to lingering soreness in his own elbow. Means returned to the mound in 2023 after undergoing his own Tommy John surgery. Baltimore will enter the season with some question marks in the back half of its rotation, but the news on Bradish has been positive at least so far. Rodriguez will be relied on to pair with Burnes at the top with Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin expected to slot into the final three spots. The team also added former Brave Julio Teheran on a minor league deal and he could serve as some rotation depth along with Bruce Zimmermann and others.
Another key addition could come from within. 2022 No. 1 overall pick Jackson Holliday is in camp and vying to begin the season on the Opening Day roster. Holliday could be the team’s Opening Day second baseman, but could eventually supplant Henderson at shortstop.
Where are they hoping to go?
The Orioles are hoping to take the next step in 2024, or, at the least, do something akin to their 2023 season. Last season was a good experience for such a young roster. Adding an experienced at top arm in Burnes will have an impact. Rodriguez taking another significant step forward would provide the team with a solid 1-2 punch at the top. While this team is filled with young burgeoning stars in Rutschman, Henderson and Holliday, they have plenty of solid contributors up and down the lineup. Anthony Santander tied Henderson for the team lead with 28 home runs. Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn combined to hold down first base and provided punch in the middle of the order. Cedric Mullins battled a groin injury for most of 2023, but is looking for a bounce back campaign in center. Austin Hays was an All-Star for the first time in his career even though he ended up with the most quotidian season imaginable (2.2 fWAR, a .310 xwOBA).
The most important thing though is that this is a team with plenty of minor league depth available. It is still one of the top systems in the majors despite a number of graduations. With renewed support from ownership, the Orioles have the ability to go out and acquire what they need to fill any holes that emerge.
Even if they don’t, though, they could be a force to be reckoned with. While FanGraphs only has them with a centrally-projected 84 wins and 50-50 playoff odds, third in the AL East, their Depth Charts have them as a top ten roster. Their catching situation is the cream of the crop thanks to Rutschman, the trio of Henderson, Holliday, and Jordan Westburg should give them a great-if-not-elite left side of the infield, Mullins is great to have patrolling center, and they’ve got enough talented bats to make great use of the DH spot.
It feels kind of weird to type this a season after they barely finished behind the Dodgers for the game’s second-best bullpen, but the relief corps does look like a soft spot for the team. Cano was dominant and Kimbrel was quite good last year, but even if those two guys repeat their 2023s, there’s not much else there. Danny Coulombe also had an awesome 2023, but he outpitched his xFIP a ton and has a long track record of being just a regular ol’ reliever. We’ll see what happens.
Braves 2023 head to head
The Braves and Orioles matched up for a great three-game series at Truist Park in early May. The Orioles took the opener of the series 9-4 by battering Max Fried for eight hits and seven runs (five earned) over six innings. Fried was then placed on the Injured List soon after with a forearm strain and wouldn’t return until August.
Kevin Pillar hit an epic two-run home run off Danny Coulombe in the eighth to help Atlanta to a 5-4 win in the second game of the series. A walk-off double by Michael Harris II in the 12th inning gave the Braves a 3-2 win in the series finale.
In 2024, Atlanta will make the trip to Camden Yards on June 11-13 for a three game series.
