(Yes, we’re really doing this.)
The Atlanta Braves are coming off of a banner 2023 season that saw them set numerous offensive records on their way to an MLB-best 104 wins. Unfortunately, for some people and probably the team itself, those good feelings faded quickly with another loss to the Philadelphia Phillies in the Division Series. Atlanta spent the offseason shoring up its roster with the additions of Chris Sale and Jarred Kelenic to go along with a restocked bullpen. They are betting that their core group along with the new additions will be enough to get them to a seventh straight NL East title and finally back over the hump in the postseason.
Where were they in 2023?
Simply put, the Braves were the best team in baseball in 2023. They put up those 104 wins despite getting just 14 starts from Max Fried and only nine total appearances from Kyle Wright. Spencer Strider took a giant leap forward in his first full season in the rotation. Strider led the majors and broke John Smoltz’s single season franchise record for strikeouts. He also pitched well in two postseason starts, but received essentially no run support.
Ronald Acuña Jr. turned in one of the best seasons in franchise history and became the first player in league history to have a 40-70 season. He won the National League’s MVP Award unanimously. Matt Olson finished fourth in MVP voting and led the majors with 54 home runs and 139 RBI. The Braves had three players hit at least 40 homers, five finish with at least 30, and seven with at least 20. Orlando Arcia’s 17 homers were the fewest of any player in the starting lineup. Atlanta tied the 2019 Minnesota Twins for the most homers by a team in major league history with 307.
Atlanta won the NL East by 14 games over the Phillies and entered the postseason as the No. 1 overall seed. However, it wasn’t without some concern. Fried was placed on the injured list in late September with a blister issue. He returned to start in Game 2 of the Division Series, but it was his first time pitching in several weeks. Charlie Morton suffered a finger injury in a start during the final week of the season and missed the Division Series entirely. Even with the pitching issues, it was Atlanta’s vaunted offense that did them in, as they disappeared: the team managed just eight runs combined in the four games. Five of those runs came in Game 2 which was the only game that the Braves won.
Still, it was a crazy-productive season for the club, given that they finished first in team fWAR by nearly three wins over second place. The pitching was not quite up to the same golden standard, as the Braves finished just 11th in pitching fWAR, with both the rotation and bullpen barely making the top ten. It was a team driven by seven standout offensive performances day-in, day-out, along with Strider and some good backend relief work by A.J. Minter, Raisel Iglesias, and even Nick Anderson before he went down with injury. On the flip side, due to injuries and a lack of consistency, Morton was the only starter behind Strider to finish with at least 2.0 fWAR. Fried and Bryce Elder barely missed that mark, and the fifth starter spot was a carousel all season.
What did they do in the offseason?
Despite a second straight early exit, the Braves entered the offseason looking to shore up their roster rather than making an overhaul. As free agency was about to start, Atlanta moved quickly to lock up relievers Pierce Johnson and Joe Jimenez on multi-year deals. The team also signed power righty Reynaldo Lopez and announced that they were going to give him the opportunity to win a spot in the rotation (which he apparently has, at least to start the season). Atlanta also elected to exercise the $20 million option on Charlie Morton’s contract to bring him back into the fold for his age-40 season.
The Braves also pulled off a series of trades with a lot of money changing hands. They acquired lefty reliever Aaron Bummer in a six-player deal that included Nicky Lopez, former first round pick Jared Shuster and Michael Soroka going to the White Sox. They sent Kyle Wright, who won’t pitch at all in 2024 after undergoing shoulder surgery, and Nick Anderson to the Royals in separate cost-cutting moves.
Atlanta put some of that salary savings to work in early December when they landed former top prospect Jarred Kelenic along with Marco Gonzales and Evan White from the Mariners in exchange for Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. The Braves quickly moved on from Gonzales and White, packaging them in deals to the Pirates and Angels respectively. Atlanta is hoping that a fresh start and lower expectations will allow Kelenic to reach his true potential after several frustrating (for different reasons) seasons in Seattle.
Throughout the offseason, the Braves had been rumored to be on the hunt to add a starting pitcher. They reportedly pursued right-hander Aaron Nola before he opted to return to Philadelphia. They were also rumored to be a potential suitor for White Sox righty Dylan Cease. Alex Anthopoulos pulled the trigger in late December by acquiring veteran lefty Chris Sale from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for infielder pseudo-prospect Vaughn Grissom. Sale was once one of the best pitchers in the majors, but has been hampered by injury the last several seasons. He enjoyed his first normal offseason in quite a while and has looked fine enough so far in the spring. Sale is hoping to show that he still has something left in the tank.
Atlanta made one more significant move late in Spring Training by bringing back veteran outfielder Adam Duvall on a one-year deal. Duvall is now set to platoon with Kelenic in left field, after the team initially downplayed any thoughts of inserting Kelenic into a platoon role.
Where are they hoping to go?
As spring camp opened, several Braves talked openly about adopting a “World Series or bust” mentality. It makes sense in some ways, as the 2023 team achieved most of what could realistically be hoped for any team to accomplish during the regular season. Still, it’s a little dangerous to pin any evaluation on a tournament full of short series — one need look no further than the fact that the 84-win, negative run differential Diamondbacks made the World Series as recently as last year, toppling the Phillies in the NLCS. As Grapefruit League games began and the team got down to its regular business, the title-or-nothing mentality has become much less of a talking point. Still, Strider has been one of the most vocal players on the subject, but the team is also hoping that Sale will bring a bit of an edge to the clubhouse and the pitching staff.
The good news for their aspirations, though, is that on paper, the Braves will again be one of the most talented, if not straight-up the most talented team, in the majors. They are heavy favorite to win the NL East and entered the spring as the World Series favorite. While that’s somewhat of a familiar refrain because the Braves have been pretty good for years now, their projections are off the charts this year. Not only does FanGraphs have them as a 98-win team, about four wins above their closest competition, but their preseason World Series title odds are a bonkers 1-in-4. In recent history, only two teams were anywhere close — the 2021 Dodgers and 2018 Astros — and those teams didn’t have to contend with the current playoff format.
The bad news, well, is that the Braves do have to contend with this playoff format, and, well, the playoffs altogether. Due to the nature of taking a sport that requires a lot of games for the standings to align to talent and forcing teams to play short series to wrap up a tournament before winter takes over, the postseason has always been something closer to a coin flip than feels appropriate. Playoff expansion has only added to that in spades. The Wild Card round was little more than a formality last season and provided the clubs advancing to the Division Series with a nice jump start. Still, this is the format that is in place and it is the one that the Braves are tasked with figuring out. For all of their regular season accolades, it looks like they will ultimately be judging themselves by how successful they are in the postseason, for better or worse. But it should be a fun ride, anyway.
