The 2023 season culminated with a 9-8 record, fourth place in the AFC North. All three other teams in the division made the playoffs. It was a disappointing end for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, but hopefully, it will fuel this team in 2024.
It was a streaky season, with four wins in a row, three wins in a row, and three losses in a row late in the season. Joe Burrow’s injury hurt; he was only 5-5 in his ten starts, and backup Jake Browning performed admirably in his starts.
The offense finished with a 21.5 PPG average, right in the middle of the NFL statistically, and the passing offense was among the league’s upper half. At the same time, the rushing defense was among the few worst. The defense was improved but finished near the middle in many categories.
Brian Callahan, the offensive coordinator, left to become the Titans’ head coach. Dan Pitcher, a coach for eight seasons in the organization, takes over. Their veteran running back, Joe Mixon, was traded to the Texans. Offensive line stalwart Jonah Williams left, but the team signed veteran Trent Brown and drafted massive tackle Amarius Mims. Both will play extensively in 2024, and the line should be improved.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow
As Burrow goes, the Bengals go. The offense has pieces built around an offense that pushes the ball vertically. As mentioned, the offense functioned admirably with Browning in for the last seven games, but it wasn’t as explosive.
Burrow continued his trend of slow starts to the season in 2023, putting the Bengals behind the eight ball with three losses in the first four games. He then led the team to a four-game win streak, including the Super Bowl runner-up 49ers thumping.
All the while, you could see something wrong with him physically. Burrow wasn’t pushing the ball downfield as much and wasn’t taking risks. While that isn’t entirely bad, it also holds him back some. The stats weren’t bad – for his ten games, he threw for 2,309 yards and 15 TDs with only 6 INTs. He ultimately missed the final seven games due to a torn ligament in his right wrist.
The injury-prone tag is often thrown around when talking about Burrow. He has missed some games, six in his rookie season and seven last season, and does take a bit of a beating. Hopefully, the line is improving, and he was on pace in 2023 for his fewest sacks over an entire season.
I am predicting Burrow plays 17 games, rights the ship in the Queen City, and Who Dey Nation returns to the playoffs while winning the competitive North.
Projection: 68.7% Completion, 4,725 yards, 37 TDs, 11 INTs
The Backups
Re-signing Jake Browning had to be a priority after he filled in so well last season. While he may be more limited than their superstar big-money QB, Browning proved to be one of the most valuable backups. He threw for nearly 2,000 yards in eight games, with 12 TDs versus 7 INTs.
Browning struggled against better teams, losing to the Steelers twice (enough to ire the Bengals faithful) and a stinker versus the Chiefs. He threw for over 300 yards three times, the same as Burrow, and performed well for a player in the league for five years who had never played a snap thus far.
Browning is worth a roster spot in Superflex leagues. Logan Woodside and Rocky Lombardi are the other QBs in orange and black, but neither is rosterable.
Running Backs
Zack Moss
The Bengals traded Mixon to the Texans on a Tuesday and signed Moss to a two-year deal two days later. The Mixon trade was for a song, and Moss’ deal was for $8 million, so it was a low-cost investment in a position undervalued by the Bengals.
As a Bengals fan, I’ve been frustrated by Mixon’s output for years, but some of it was due to the line. The Moss signing didn’t inspire confidence, and I forecast him to be the lead back in a committee as they search for a “long-term” answer on their roster.
Moss has good power and patience, running hard and only making a cut here or there before getting downfield. He’s a solid pass-catching option, but that isn’t a strength in his game. Moss is an intelligent runner who takes what is given and doesn’t have the speed to break long runs.
Projection: 195 carries for 855 yards, 6 TDs, 30 receptions for 210 yards and 2 TDs
The Stable
If there is a long-term solution on the roster, it’s second-year back Chase Brown. He will see some touches in 2024 and can handle a full workload if relied on. Brown is a no-fuss-around type of back like Moss. He gets upfield quickly but has some juice to break big runs and make plays out of the backfield receiving. If I am investing in a back beyond Moss, it’s Brown, and he should be targeted in trades as a throw-in piece when you can.
Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans could see playing time, giving the Bengals different options in different situations. Williams can grind out tough yards, and Evans gives them an explosive option on third downs. Neither is a priority to roster but they could have value in deeper roster leagues if RB injuries plague the Bengals.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you what you’ve been waiting for – the one and only Ja’Marr Chase!
As a contender for overall WR1, Chase is the man, at least if the Bengals give him the giant contract he’s due for. The Bengals have been notoriously frugal, and the clock is ticking, especially after the Vikings inked Justin Jefferson to a four-year contract worth $140 million last month.
Since Chase’s arrival, the offense has shifted to a more vertical offense, and his growth goes hand in hand with Burrow’s. When Burrow is on the field, Chase is heavily targeted. He averaged nearly 11 targets a game in 2023, with Burrow at the helm. That number dropped to six a game with Burrow out.
Chase is an elite receiver capable of taking over a game with huge catches that change momentum. He’s going to have a massive 2024 season, and he will force the Bengals to open that checkbook. Chase and Burrow are the faces of the franchise.
Projection: 99 catches for 1,385 yards and 13 TDs
Tee Higgins
In what is likely his final season as a Bengal, Higgins will prove his value, and the Bengals will not be able to afford to sign him. He’s requested a trade, and the team wants to keep him, but Higgins will command $25 million or more on the open market.
As the WR2 for the Bengals, Higgins has been excellent. He missed some time in 2023, but in previous seasons, he was a lock for 1,000 yards and a handful of touchdowns. Another team could value him as a WR1, which elevates his value, and Cincinnati likely won’t be able to justify spending that much for a WR2.
Higgins doesn’t draw much attention to himself; he comes to work and works his tail off, producing solid numbers. He’s a tall boundary receiver with some of the best ball skills in the NFL. He excels at working the sideline and high-pointing for tough catches. It will be a tough loss for the team, and I hope he plays this season. Some players would hold out and demand a trade. Seeing what we’ve seen thus far in his career, I don’t predict he will go that route.
Projection: 80 catches for 1,135 yards and 7 TDs
The Corps
Here’s where it gets fun. Trenton Irwin is currently listed as the starting slot receiver. I don’t see that sticking, as he has a bevy of talented young receivers nipping at his heels, yet most don’t have ideal slot skills.
Andrei Iosivas showed a few flashes in his rookie season, but his skill set is limited and incredibly raw. He caught 15 passes for 116 yards and scored four times last season. The staff seemed to like getting him involved, so he may hold value going forward.
Charlie Jones, another rookie last season, could be intriguing if he pushes for slot touches. He’s a good route-runner with good hands and crisp movement skills but struggles due to a lack of suddenness or speed. Jones is a good possession receiver and makes sense in the slot, but I am not sure he’s dynamic enough. He may not need to be with this offense.
Rookie Jermaine Burton is the most intriguing name and will likely step in should Higgins hold out or get traded. Burton was a highly-ranked recruit who only partially realized his immense talent at Georgia or Alabama, but the flashes were there. He’s a physical receiver with aggressive hands and a bully-ball type at the catch point. Burton has speed and raw athletic ability and could complement Chase perfectly.
For fantasy, I would roster Burton, Jones, and Iosivas, in that order, as players who could emerge as viable options for Burrow. Irwin, listed as the slot starter, has some value if he stays there, but I don’t think he’ll be there long.
Kendric Pryor, Shedrick Jackson, Kwamie Lassiter II, Tre Mosley, and Cole Burgess are on the Bengals roster – but should not be found on your fantasy rosters.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki
The slot position may be less valuable since Tyler Boyd’s departure, and the Bengals have added Gesicki at the tight end. He’s a capable receiving target to get those middle-of-the-field receptions and move the chains. Gesicki has been struggling to match his production in 2020 and 2021 – when he eclipsed 700 yards each season and seemed to be trending toward being a fantasy-relevant tight end.
Gesicki will be unleashed and could return to relevance in this offense. He’s on a one-year deal, and the Bengals may not be in a hurry to push a slot receiver to relevance. I’m forecasting a bit of a fantasy resurrection for Gesicki in 2024.
Projection: 62 receptions for 760 yards and 4 TDs
The Bench
There isn’t much on the bench to get excited about. Drew Sample had the draft capital, but it hasn’t parlayed into fantasy relevance, and he’s barely worth rostering in fantasy. Rookie Erick All has a chance to find snaps should he recover from injuries and work on run blocking. We must always pay attention to those Hawkeye tight ends, but his path to fantasy points is muddled. Tanner Hudson and Tanner McLachlan lurk on the depth chart, and neither will be a fantasy asset.
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