Single Post

Previous Winner

Trevor Martin, RHP
A | 3.52 ERA, 110.0 IP (25 G, 22 GS) 28.7% K, 9.0% BB

2022 third round selection Trevor Martin was drafted with the profile of a high octane reliever, with a fastball up to 98 for Oklahoma State. He made only seven starts across his two seasons prior to draft eligibility, but showed up at the right time in the playoffs to turn heads with 16 K’s in 6.2 IP before the Rays selected him 104th overall. His emergence as a starter was a mild surprise, but the big bodied, 6’5” starter was up for task, becoming the first qualified Charleston pitcher to lead the team in ERA, strikeouts and wins since 2017. Tampa Bay clearly believes in him, giving him a start in the first week of Spring Training this year, where he struck out Cedric Mullins on three pitches (two swinging). (video)

Voting took a big step back for the first time, which is usually a sign the quality of prospect might have found its next drop off. Nevertheless, the winner was the usual volume, with Martin taking the crown. Next round adds Kenny the Piper.

Rules

There will be a selection of players listed in the comments. To vote, reply to the player’s name with a +1 in the comment. For the best voting experience, filter the comment section by Oldest.

Please vote using whichever criteria you prefer! If you like stats, use stats. If you like scouting reports, reference those reports. There’s no one right way to do this — that’s what makes this exercise fun.

If you want to vote for a player who is not listed, there will be an “Others” comment. Reply to that comment with the name of your selection. This is incredibly rare because there will eventually be up to 10 players to choose from, but it’s possible a player you feel strongly about slipped through the cracks.

If you want to nominate a player to be included in the next poll, reply to the “Testers” comment with that player’s name. We will often limit the number of players accepted for the next poll to prevent the list from becoming cumbersome. All players in one poll who do not win the vote are automatically included in the next poll — there is no need to re-nominate.

Voting will go live on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday each week.

Candidates

Dru Baker, OF
A+ | .307/.396/.491 (.887 OPS, 144 wRC+) 377 PA, 13 HR, 38 SB
AA | .287/.346/.417 (.763 OPS, 105 wRC+) 127 PA, 1 HR, 11 SB

Back to back seasons the Rays promoted 2021 4th rounder Baker mid-season after he dominated his level, and both times he turned in a league average performance at the next level. From a tools perspective, he’s a right handed Colton Ledbetter that trades exit velo for more stole bases. His defense has projection in center, but he needs to keep the strikeouts down as he continues to climb the ladder. His easiest path to the majors is in a bench role.

Carlos Colmenarez, SS
Rk-A | .211/.349/.313 (.661 OPS, 96 wRC+ in A) 370 PA, 6 HR, 10 SB

There was a time Colmenarez was viewed as the heir to Wander Franco’s hype, but that has all but died, and not just because Colmenarez reported stateside 4 inches shorter than expected. Viewed by some as the top prospect in the 2020 international recruiting class, and signed for a $3 million bonus, it’s been a rough showing in his professional career. A broken hamate kept Colmenarez almost completely off the field in 2021, and a tendency to strikeout reared its ugly head in 2022 that carried into 2023 with a a 38.2 K%. Accordingly, it will be interesting to see what level the Rays place him in his age-20 season. The organization has an opening at A+ for shortstop, but will his bat be ready? Whatever the result, athletic shortstops hitting from the left side are to be desired in any system, so there’s still hope he might offer value as he climbs the ladder.

Marcus Johnson, RHP
A | 3.74 ERA, 130.0 IP (26 G, 24 GS) 21.3% K, 3.8% BB

The Rays acquired Johnson shortly after he was drafted 112th overall by the Marlins in 2022 in a trade deadline deal that cleared 40-man roster space by sending Xavier Edwards to Miami. He was a projectable, 6’6” starter in the draft but had a short stride in his delivery that didn’t seem to take full advantage of his size. In reviewing tape from 2023, I’m not sure the Rays have changed much about his delivery (it’s possible he’s releasing closer to the plate, but the stride seems unchanged); the results came anyway. He’s got low mileage on his arm, having been a starter only one season for Duke, and has a breaking ball and change up that play.

Jacob Lopez, LHP
AA | 2.57 ERA, 28.0 IP (8 G, 6 GS) 45 K, 9 BB
AAA | 2.72 ERA, 79.1 IP (18 GS) 26.0% K, 14.0% BB
MLB | 4.38 ERA, 12.1 IP (4 G, 1 GS) 8 K, 2 BB

Lopez missed 2022 for Tommy John surgery, but rode the shuttle to the big leagues when he returned in 2023. Like most system southpaws, he’s a deception lefty with low velo stuff, and with a 2-seam/slider combo that plays in the lower third. He has a change, but lacks a third pitch vs lefties. It’s unlikely the Rays see a starter in his stuff, but his utility as an up-and-down bulk guy will keep him on your television screen this season. As for whether he could be something more, Lopez gets great extension and spins some quality armside run, so who knows what the Rays pitching lab could cook up for him.

Tanner Murray, 2B/3B
AA | .256/.345/.438 (.783 OPS, 110 wRC+) 200 PA, 5 HR, 0 SB

In 2022, Murray got a handful of games in the AFL after a strong showing at Class-A (151 wRC+) and an average showing in A+ (100 wRC+), but it’s not clear that the Rays knew what to do with the 2020 4th rounder out of UC Davis. To start 2023 he bounced between A+ and Triple-A, perhaps to meet a roster need, but was injured just 9 games into his season on a play at second base. He returned mid-July and the Rays sent him to Double-A, where he worked a utility-style infield rotation but mostly settled in at second base. He’s got sure hands and good plate discipline, but it’s a quiet swing without the power you’d expect for his position.

Kenny Piper, C
A+ | .216/.333/.458 (.791, 115 wRC+) 270 PA, 13 HR, 3 SB
AA | .293/.389/.610 (.999 OPS, 160 wRC+) 95 PA, 7 HR, 0 SB

Where most hitters struggle the most when promoted to Double-A, Piper found a power stroke and went on a tear in his age-24 season once promoted to Montgomery, belting 7 HR in less than a hundred plate appearances. Was it simply a hot streak, or a legitimate improvement? We’ll have to find out. As an 18th round draft pick from 2021, Piper will be Rule 5 eligible at the end of this season, so time is of the essence. The draw here is plus power. His long swing is cocked and ready, and has enough speed to belt them to all fields.

Ronny Simón, 2B/SS
AA | .240/.323/.391 (.714 OPS, 91 wRC+) 416 PA, 10 HR, 26 SB
AAA | .282/.380/.427 (.807 OPS, 107 wRC+) 137 PA, 3 HR, 5 SB

Acquired from the Diamondbacks ahead of the 2022 season for Jordon Luplow, Simón gets most of his play at second base, but has potential as a switch-hitting utility player if his defense continues to improve, or could settle in as a solid starter at second base. This off-season, Simón played a starring role for the Dominican’s Toros Del Este, where he led the league in both AVG (.323) and OBP (.432). His best attribute is his speed on the base paths, and entering his age-24 season is starting to develop real in-game power (not for lack of trying, despite a diminutive size). It’s a high-effort, linear swing, but thanks to some added patience it’s starting to come together for a player who’s been Rule 5 eligible two off-seasons running.

Willy Vasquez, 3B
A+ | .233/.310/.393 (.703 OPS, 93 wRC+) 472 PA, 16 HR, 17 SB

In another life, Vasquez is in Caminero’s shoes, but back-to-back seasons hitting under 100 wRC+ have dimmed the bright light of his other tools. Either his long swing needs reinvention, or he needs to prove himself against advanced pitching, as time is running out. Despite some struggles hitting for average at Class- and High-A these last two seasons, a trip to Double-A is next, and an opportunity to prove he’s worth addition to the 40-man roster next year. If he figures it out, the rest of his tools give a major league projection for an infield role.

Colby White, RHP
Rk | 2 ER, 10.1 IP | (11 G) 12 SO, 11 BB
A+ | 2 ER, 5.0 IP (5 G) 4 K, 2 BB
AA | 0 ER, 6.2 IP (8 G) 8 K, 4 BB

Relief-only prospect White returned from Tommy John surgery (due to an elbow fracture at the ligament) mid-way through 2023 after missing all of the previous season, and in total threw 22.0 IP with a 1.64 ERA across three levels. His potential as a high-leverage reliever is sky high, so much so that Tampa Bay added him to the 40-man roster last off-season to ensure he was not poached, despite being unable to pitch at the time. His game prior to the surgery was a 70-grade rising fastball and an above average power slider, but Marc Topkin reports he now boasts two breaking balls that Kyle Snyder calls, “better off-speed pitches than he’s ever featured before.”

Cole Wilcox, RHP
AA | 5.23 ERA, 106.2 IP (25 GS) 21.8% K, 9.7% BB

Wilcox’s first full season following Tommy John surgery in 2021 was muted, with his strikeouts lacking the expected mid-30’s rate. Perhaps that’s because his previous high-octane fastball that earned first round money from the Padres, before they sent him to the Rays in the Snell trade, barely scratches 94 these days. Good pitchers adjust, and the new version of Wilcox was working on a groundballer’s sinker/slider approach in 2023. He’s got a starter’s frame and the breaking ball plays, but it’s an open question as to whether it’s still a major league profile or just a projection of his pedigree.