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Previous Winner

Jose Urbina, RHP
Rk | 5.32 ERA, 23.2 IP (11 G, 8 GS) 21 K, 12 BB

A seventeen-year old out of Venezuela nearing 98 mph with his fastball, Urbina was signed for $210k and moved to the US without much pomp and circumstance despite skipping the DSL. His bulked up shoulders belong more on a swimmer than a pitcher, but it’s a good body. The delivery has hints of high effort red flags, but that’s to be expected for his age and velocity. Despite his youth, the fastball should play at every level. His best pitch, the breaking ball, shows major league potential in any part of the zone, and he’s shown feel for a change. If he were a high schooler, you might not blush if Urbina was considered a first round talent. (video)

Urbina finally sneaks into the Top-20, but his falling out of the Top-10 should be evidence enough our community is truly voting how it seems fit instead of just following the whims of anyone on the masthead. I truly believe Urbina is a day-one draft talent, so it will be exciting to see how he performs in a “full season” this year. Next round adds Dru Baker, who is seen as a helium prospect and a potential MLB contributor in 2024 at Baseball Prospectus.

Rules

There will be a selection of players listed in the comments. To vote, reply to the player’s name with a +1 in the comment. For the best voting experience, filter the comment section by Oldest.

Please vote using whichever criteria you prefer! If you like stats, use stats. If you like scouting reports, reference those reports. There’s no one right way to do this — that’s what makes this exercise fun.

If you want to vote for a player who is not listed, there will be an “Others” comment. Reply to that comment with the name of your selection. This is incredibly rare because there will eventually be up to 10 players to choose from, but it’s possible a player you feel strongly about slipped through the cracks.

If you want to nominate a player to be included in the next poll, reply to the “Testers” comment with that player’s name. We will often limit the number of players accepted for the next poll to prevent the list from becoming cumbersome. All players in one poll who do not win the vote are automatically included in the next poll — there is no need to re-nominate.

Voting will go live on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday each week.

Candidates

Dru Baker, OF
A+ | .307/.396/.491 (.887 OPS, 144 wRC+) 377 PA, 13 HR, 38 SB
AA | .287/.346/.417 (.763 OPS, 105 wRC+) 127 PA, 1 HR, 11 SB

Back to back seasons the Rays promoted 2021 4th rounder Baker mid-season after he dominated his level, and both times he turned in a league average performance at the next level. From a tools perspective, he’s a right handed Colton Ledbetter that trades exit velo and more stole bases. His defense has projection in center, but he needs to keep the strikeouts down as he continues to climb the ladder. His easiest path to the majors is in a bench role.

Brailer Guerrero, OF
DSL | .261/.379/.391 (.770 OPS, 110 wRC+) 29 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB

Tampa Bay paid $3.7 million to land this prospect in January 2023, and just 7 games into his career he needed shoulder surgery. The logline on Guerrero is an exit velocity in the 110’s despite being just 17 years old, but he’s not just free swinging. There appears to be a solid approach at the plate. He’s already listed at 6’1” and 215 lbs, so there’s some concern his longterm future is at first base, but until then he has the arm to pile up outfield assists from a corner, assuming he returns to playing ball right as rain.

Marcus Johnson, RHP
A | 3.74 ERA, 130.0 IP (26 G, 24 GS) 21.3% K, 3.8% BB

The Rays acquired Johnson shortly after he was drafted 112th overall by the Marlins in 2022 in a trade deadline deal that cleared 40-man roster space by sending Xavier Edwards to Miami. He was a projectable, 6’6” starter in the draft but had a short stride in his delivery that didn’t seem to take full advantage of his size. In reviewing tape from 2023, I’m not sure the Rays have changed much about his delivery (it’s possible he’s releasing closer to the plate, but the stride seems unchanged); the results came anyway. He’s got low mileage on his arm, having been a starter only one season for Duke, and has a breaking ball and change up that play.

Trevor Martin, RHP
A | 3.52 ERA, 110.0 IP (25 G, 22 GS) 28.7% K, 9.0% BB

2022 third round selection Trevor Martin was drafted with the profile of a high octane reliever, with a fastball up to 98 for Oklahoma State. He made only seven starts across his two seasons prior to draft eligibility, but showed up at the right time in the playoffs to turn heads with 16 K’s in 6.2 IP before the Rays selected him 104th overall. His emergence as a starter was a mild surprise, but the big bodied, 6’5” starter was up for task, becoming the first qualified Charleston pitcher to lead the team in ERA, strikeouts and wins since 2017. Tampa Bay clearly believes in him, giving him a start in the first week of Spring Training this year, where he struck out Cedric Mullins on three pitches (two swinging). (video)

Tre’ Morgan, 1B
Rk-A | .396/.482/.542 (1.024 OPS, 182 wRC+ in A) 56 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB

Three-year LSU first baseman Morgan was taken by the Rays in the third round of 2023, marking what looks like a great draft class on offense for Tampa Bay. He’s a strong defender at first base who can hit and hit consistently, even if it’s without commanding power thus far. If his swing follows his physical maturity, he could show 15 HR pop in an outfield role, but following his current trajectory as a slap hitting 1B with an elite glove, it sure sounds like a Rays first baseman.

Ian Seymour, LHP
Rk | 1.35 ERA, 6.2 IP (4 GS) 11 K, 4 BB
A | 1.64 ERA, 22.0 IP (6 GS) 22 K, 5 BB
A+ | 2.08 ERA, 8.2 IP (2 GS) 9 K, 5 BB
AA | 0.00 ERA, 4.2 IP (1 GS) 4 K, 2 BB

Seymour returned from Tommy John surgery on June 29, and got a slow start with a Complex and Low-A placement at couple-inning stints, but the Rays strategy proved successful. He was able to string together 13 starts across four levels, and locked it down each step of the way. If you remove his injured 2022, Seymour has a career 1.76 ERA. Like fellow org. southpaw Mason Montgomery, he’s a deception-lefty with a violent arm action, but unlike Montgomery he trades the plus slider for a plus change up with 10 mph separation. The over the top delivery has an awful head jerk (video), and accordingly gives the traditional mind a reliever projection, but if it works it works?

Colby White, RHP
Rk | 2 ER, 10.1 IP | (11 G) 12 SO, 11 BB
A+ | 2 ER, 5.0 IP (5 G) 4 K, 2 BB
AA | 0 ER, 6.2 IP (8 G) 8 K, 4 BB

Relief-only prospect White returned from Tommy John surgery (due to an elbow fracture at the ligament) mid-way through 2023 after missing all of the previous season, and in total threw 22.0 IP with a 1.64 ERA across three levels. His potential as a high-leverage reliever is sky high, so much so that Tampa Bay added him to the 40-man roster last off-season to ensure he was not poached, despite being unable to pitch at the time. His game prior to the surgery was a 70-grade rising fastball and an above average power slider, but Marc Topkin reports he now boasts two breaking balls that Kyle Snyder calls, “better off-speed pitches than he’s ever featured before.”

Cole Wilcox, RHP
AA | 5.23 ERA, 106.2 IP (25 GS) 21.8% K, 9.7% BB

Wilcox’s first full season following Tommy John surgery in 2021 was muted, with his strikeouts lacking the expected mid-30’s rate. Perhaps that’s because his previous high-octane fastball that earned first round money from the Padres, before they sent him to the Rays in the Snell trade, barely scratches 94 these days. Good pitchers adjust, and the new version of Wilcox was working on a groundballer’s sinker/slider approach in 2023. He’s got a starter’s frame and the breaking ball plays, but it’s an open question as to whether it’s still a major league profile or just a projection of his pedigree.